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The NY-23rd got interesting when Doug Hoffman joined the race. AP Photo
It has been a long time since a Congressional district race got this much attention. New York's 23rd is seen as a pivotal election because of the way the race has evolved over the last two months. Dede Scozzafava, a moderate, won the Republican nomination for the district but was subsequently challenged by conservative Doug Hoffman. Increasingly voters from the Republican-dominated district started migrating to Hoffman until finally Scozzafava was forced to quit her campaign.
Now in a new twist to the New York 23rd soap opera Scozzafava has actually endorsed Democrat Bill Owns over Hoffman. The race was a virtual guaranteed seat for Republicans but the caos within the Republican party has some thinking Democrats may be able to pull off an upset. Here is what the polls have to say about the race:
Poll: Siena Research has Hoffman leading Owens 41%-36% with 18% of voters undecided.
Analysis: The undecided % in the Siena poll is huge this close to election day so the race is certainly not over. Having said that it is not looking good for the Democrats. Since Scozzafava announced her intention of leaving the race it appears her voters have gone to Hoffman over Owens. Owens numbers have remained the same since her announcement while Hoffman gained 5%. In addition Hoffman has the ever-precious momentum heading into election day. The Public Policy Poll can not be trusted quite as much as some of that polling was done before Scozzafava made her announcement to quit over the weekend. Still if PPP's numbers are accurate and Hoffman simply holds on to the majority he already has he is assured a victory.
Both polls are of "likely voters" which may or may not over represent Republican voters depending on the sampling formula used by Siena. That possibility along with a strong turnout for Owens are really the only prayer Democrats have in this race. It is hard to imagine Hoffman losing this race with the momentum he has going into tomorrow and all the star power (Beck, Palin, etc.) supporting his side. Most importantly New York's 23rd is demographically weighted toward Republicans to such a degree that it is hard to imagine Owens pulling off an upset now that there is only one candidate for Republican to vote for.
Prediction: (C) Hoffman 50%, (D) Owens - 41%, Scozzafava - 5% sympathy vote, Others (4%)
Make your own predictions below if you wish and check back for more last-minute polls and predictions on the New Jersey and Virginia Governor races.
Comments
Hey Ryan,
How's that "Short term victory" coming? I believe Joe Scarburough instantaneously slammed Mike Allen from "politico" who actually tried to claim that the NY-23 race was "A real toss up" despite new polls showing Hoffman with a 17-point lead. The toss up notion being so completely absurd that he offered ANYONE 3:1 odds for Owen winning.
It's not a surprise though... You libs keep trying to call Obama's 2.9% win a "Landslide" and a "Social Mandate". (Keeping in mind that he BARELY carried CO, Ind, VA, OH, NC, FL)
So, yeah...whatev.
As For Scozzafava... what kind of "Moderate" runs on a republican ticket, takes Republican campaign $$$, yet pushes Liberal/Dem policies and then ENDORSES the opposing Dem candidate when they realize the constituency doesn't want them??
Answer: A Democrat trying to win an election in a traditionally Republican district who thinks they may have the ability to beat their fellow Democrat if they play the "Wolf in Sheep's Clothing" bid.
Doc
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