So many categories, so little time. And so many Oscar prediction columns. Well here’s a different take on everything that went down over the last few months, leading up to the 2011 Academy Awards.
With the 2011 movie award season is about to wrap, as the Academy Awards hands out its final Oscar trophy, honoring the best of film in 2010, on Sunday February 27th. All that is truly remembered by most is who won Best Picture. And that’s what this column will solely focus on. Using a perspective commonly found in just about every college sport. The ranking system.
Award season starts in mid-November, as the twenty-something critic associations begin to receive award screeners. Right around this time is where the Best Picture heralding begins to creep into reviews and other forms of media. The Best Picture Award is essentially the bookends to award season.
Having said all that, this column is going rank - and re-rank - the ten Best Picture nominees, based on how they performed at the numerous - and pertinent - award shows leading up to the only one that matters. The 83rd Academy Awards.
And here…We…Go…
The exclusive film critic circles, societies and associations are more-or-less constructing the preseason poll for the award season, as they write their lovely reviews. For those that may not know, these critic groups are recognized by the studios and have their votes solicited in the same context as an electoral college would in an election to a certain degree. Based on that, the twenty-or-so associations set the tone for award season. In 2010, the favorite was set by anointing The Social Network as the early front-runner. So the “preseason” award poll would look something like this (click on title for review):
3. The King’s Speech
6. Toy Story 3
8. Winter’s Bone
Other receiving votes: The Town, Let Me In, I Love You Phillip Morris, Biutiful
Inception was the odds-on favorite when it released this past July. Many critics proclaimed that this will take the Oscar. Then October hit and The Social Network easily took the reins and was out in front. Toy Story 3, also a summer release, grossed the most money at the box office, but never received the attention the top 2 were attaining. The King’s Speech didn’t start to make a push until December when more audiences and fellow journalists were able to screen it.
Keeping with the critics, the first televised award show was Critics’ Choice Awards, which is put on by the Broadcast Film Critics group. Their award show aired on January 16th and pit all “preseason” contenders - save for The Kids Are All Right - in their first battle. Based on the nominations along with the Best Picture award going to the favorites at this show, here’s what the new poll looks like at this point:
1. The Social Network
2. Inception
3. The King’s Speech
4. Black Swan
5. Toy Story 3
6. The Fighter
7. True Grit (2010)
8. 127 Hours
9. The Town
10. Winter’s Bone
Other receiving votes: The Kids Are All Right, Biutiful, Let Me In, I Love You Phillip Morris
Everything went according to plan at this award show, with the only real changes coming in at the bottom of the rankings.
The second round is ironically considered by some to be the “second” biggest award show of the year in the film industry. The Golden Globes. Think of these award voters as the BCS in college football. As in, they really do not know what they’re doing and they are holding the proverbial game back. Voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press, this award show has two Best Picture categories. Therefore, the top ten contenders were unable to face each other to find out who is the true champion (Sound familiar college football fans). With The Kids Are All Right winning in the Best Musical or Comedy category and The Social Network taking Best Motion Picture in a Drama, here are the new rankings:
1. The Social Network
2. Inception
3. The King’s Speech
4. Black Swan
5. The Fighter
6. Toy Story 3
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. True Grit (2010)
9. 127 Hours
10. The Town
Other receiving votes: Winter’s Bone, Biutiful, Barney’s Version, Let Me In
Our next in-season battle was on January 22nd at The Producer’s Guild Awards. All ten positions listed in the most recent above poll, were competing for the Guild’s top prize. When it was announced The King’s Speech took home the Producer’s honor for Best Pic, momentum slowly began shifting. Based on articles ranging from Variety to PopMatters.com, people started clamoring for a new front-runner. Come in new rankings:
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. Inception
4. Black Swan
5. Toy Story 3
6. The Fighter
7. True Grit (2010)
8. 127 Hours
9. The Kids Are All Right
10. The Town
Other receiving votes: Winter’s Bone, Let Me In, Biutiful
Toy Story 3 remaining in the top 5 may seem odd. In the last couple years though, a select group - or faction - has been pushing for an animated film to win Best Picture. Most recently seen with Up. This has been seen in critic associations and within the media. Kind of like the AP poll in college basketball and/or football. Where the writers/voters can never seem to drop Duke basketball and/or any SEC football squad out of the top 5. What is tough to determine is how big this said faction is, and if any of the Academy members feel the same. Plus, animations already have their own category, so this banter seems to lack any substantial logic.
Next up was The Director’s Guild on January 29th. The Academy nominations a few days prior, along with this particular Guild’s nods, really shook up the rankings, as the DGA only highlights five nominations (as should all of them by the way). Seeing the nominees was enough to adjust the top ten. However, when the winner was announced for Best Directorial Achievement in Motion Pictures, a new #1 was ready to take the pedestal…
1. The King’s Speech
2. The Social Network
3. Inception
4. Black Swan
5. The Fighter
6. True Grit (2010)
7. 127 Hours
8. Toy Story 3
9. The Kids Are All Right
10. The Town
Other receiving votes: Winter’s Bone, Biutiful, Let Me In
With three quarters in the bag, a few specific award shows such as the Screen Actors Guild and the Writers Guild Awards, kind of balanced each other out. Neither of these shows have a Best Picture category, but SAG was fond of The King’s Speech in other areas, while WGA shut out the stammering favorite all together.
Having factoring in those two, the only other notable battle was held over the pond at the BAFTA Film Awards. Better known as the British Oscars. Playing at “home,” The King’s Speech dominated in most categories as expected. So the rankings remain static. Think of the BAFTA’s as an exhibition match or tournament.
Now it’s time for the national championship of the film industry. As industry experts try to forecast who will win, the time between the Oscar nominations being announced (January 25th) to the actual show, is similar to March Madness in college basketball. Conference tournaments will ultimately decide ones seed in the NCAA tournament. So when taking into account all the above mentioned award shows, forecasting columns by industry insiders, box office grosses, critical reception and the landscape of the 5,800 academy members who will vote on the Oscars; here’s the final poll and ranking for Best Picture:
1. The King’s Speech
2. The Social Network
3. Black Swan
4. The Fighter
5. Winter’s Bone
6. True Grit (2010)
7. Inception
8. 127 Hours
9. Toy Story 3
10. The Kids Are All Right
Inception has hung around the top 3 the entire award season. It seems that this flick has been forgotten by everyone though, hence its plummet down the ranks. The Fighter may seem high, but it has a ton of nominations in all the right categories, suggesting that it could be a sleeper. And a fresh winner. True Grit (2010) will suffer - despite 10 Oscar nods - due to it being a remake and the Coen Bros. are multiple Oscar winners already.
The true sleepers that have a legit shot to upset The King’s Speech and/or The Social Network are Black Swan and Winter’s Bone. If by some chance Speech and Network fail to take home the “championship,” the likely cause is both of them cancelling each other out in the voting. Leading to one of these “Cinderella’s” going home with the year’s top prize. (Personally, I like Black Swan’s chances…A lot)
Enjoy the elegant madness that is the Oscars on February 27th starting at 8pm EST.
(Comparison of the preseason poll and the final poll):
PRESEASON FINAL
1. The Social Network 1. The King’s Speech
2. Inception 2. The Social Network
3. The King’s Speech 3. Black Swan
4. True Grit (2010) 4. The Fighter
5. Black Swan 5. Winter’s Bone
6. Toy Story 3 6. True Grit (2010)
7. The Fighter 7. Inception
8. Winter’s Bone 8. 127 Hours
9. 127 Hours 9. Toy Story 3
10. The Kids Are All Right 10. The Kids Are All Right
Random notes:
-The Social Network performed like tennis great Roger Federer and never dropped out of the top 2 spots.
-The Fighter turned out to be the TCU of college football this award season. Highest ranking was #4 and never dropped once in the polls.
-Inception was the 2010-2011 version of Syracuse men’s basketball, having the biggest plunge from #2 to #7.
-Toy Story 3 was ranked as high as #5, but could not overcome the elite contenders. Andy Roddick’s tennis career in a nutshell (and for the record, I’m a fan).
-Winter’s Bone made the biggest jump - North Carolina basketball style - going from unranked to reaching #5.
-127 Hours was as high as #7 and as low as #9. It received about as much respect as mid-majors do in college football.
Comments
Well done; fresh take to make it all clear for us non-pro's.
Nice
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