So there is a deal in place (sort of) that should get us back to NFL football this week. The players have yet to ratify the agreement, but all indications are it should get done sometime early this week and free agency should start soon after.
The Texans will try to make some big noise, but the reality is with the salary cap in the $120 million range, they won't have much to spend. Expect some deals to be restructured to clear some additional space, and perhaps a few cuts to help get some additional relief.
John Clayton has a nice team by team breakdown here.
Texans nation wants Nnamdi Asomugha in the worst way, but the talented cornerback figures to command a massive salary that simply won't be logistically possible for the Texans to handle. A massive deal would also create potential concerns for next season, when Mario Williams and Arian Foster will also command huge raises.
Teams like Tampa Bay, which are almost $60 million under the cap, will have the resources to outbid the Texans (and many other teams) for the Asomughas of the world.
Jonathan Joseph, the Bengals corner who would be a less expensive option (and maybe a better one longterm) will also likely command big dollars.
The Texans have several holes to fill. While either player would strengthen the secondary, there are still other issues that need to be addressed. Safety is almost as big a priority, since the Texans let both of last year's starters walk. They believe Glover Quinn will make a nice transition to the position, but that leaves cornerback even thinner.
You could also make a pretty strong argument they need a quality nose tackle (it's hard to share their enthusiasm for Earl Mitchell and Sean Cody) and a second receiver as well as another solid tackle for the offensive line to at least play a swing role. They also need depth at middle linebacker, something that was not address in the draft. DeMeco Ryans' health remains a concern, as does Brian Cushing's ability to play inside.
Realistically, however, no team can fill all of its needs. And the secondary is the biggest remaining need, despite the fact that three draft choices were made to bolster it.
In addition, the Texans have some of their own unrestricted free agents to consider. (John McClain has a nice breakdown here). Jacoby Jones might be the most pressing, but he might get a much bigger offer elsewhere, and the Texans will have to replace him. Vonta Leach would be a big loss, but the cap number being what it is and more pressing issues eslewhere might prevent that.
The Texans should be able to clear some cap space by cutting a few players. If the Texans can bring back Matt Leinart, expect Dan Orlovsky to be gone, which would clear up over $2 million. Amobi Okoye is likely gone as well. Steve Slaton probably won't make the team, but his number isn't that much help.
However, with some restructuring, the Texans could probably get close to $16 million under the cap, enough to bring back Jones (or another veteran wideout), Leinart, Mike Briesel and perhaps Rashad Butler. That would leave little for the big name free agents. But here are some cheaper options that would help make the Texans instantly better:
1) Gerald Sensabaugh, safety, Cowboys. Dallas has more severe cap issues than any team in the league. Sensabaugh played well at times under Wade Phillips in Dallas and fits the scheme the Texans are going to play. He wouldn't be brutally expensive, and he would be a big upgrade over what the team has now.
2) Dashon Goldson, safety, 49ers. Goldson is another solid player who would help on the back end. He figures to be less expensive and could also be a strong target.
3) The cornerback that isn't a free agent yet. Realistically, let's punt on Asomugha and Joseph as being out of their price range. But many players will be cap casualties, and it's possible one of those will be available at a reasonable rate. They all come with warts, which is why they will be free agents, but any would be an upgrade over what the Texans have now. Terrence Newman in Dallas, Nate Clements in San Francisco and Chris Gamble in Carolina could all be available.
Adding one of those types of players, plus a Goldson or Sensabaugh would give the Texans some flexibility on the back end. They would have two solid players at safety, with draft pick Shiloh Keo a possible sleeper. The corner postions would be improved, although unless Kareem Jackson suddenly wakes up with more than UFL talent, there will continue to be struggles.
Should the Texans strike out on CB prospects, there is always the possibility of adding two safeties and keeping Quinn at corner. Despite the Jacksonville player, Quinn wasn't awful last year, and with better coaching could still be a plus on the corner.
4) Don't ignore the offense. It's easy to say the Texans were very good on offense last year and don't need to do much. But they also were wildly inconsistent at times and could use another weapon. Jones might finally be ready to be an impact player, but if he is gone, the Texans will need another wideout. An Armageddon option might be to release Kevin Walter and spend a big chunk on a more established second receiver who could combine with Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels to create a more dangerous attack. The defense has to be priority No. 1, but the offense is far from perfect.
5) Do some value shopping. Some players who haven't panned out might be available for low prices. Small-risk, high-reward types will be out there, like former Raiders safety Michael Huff. The Texans have hit on some of these players in the past and will need to do it again in order to break through in 2011.
As for Asogmugha, it makes little sense to gut your roster to clear room for a player who will be 30 years old this year and command a massive salary based on what he has done in Oakland, not what he will do for the Texans. The Champ Baileys and Charles Woodsons of the world are rare birds; they have stayed at a high level well into their 30s. But is that a gamble you are willing to take on one player who by himself won't get it done?
It might not be sexy, but adding three or four key parts and improving the front-line as well as beefing up the depth makes more short and longterm sense for the Texans.
In the end, the Texans' 2011 hopes will depend on how well the players resond to Wade Phillips' defense, and if the offense can continue to improve. And, of course, better in-game management from the head coach. A big, sexy move would sell tickets, but it probably would backfire in the end. Smaller, less sexy but effective moves might be just what this team needs to finally find a way to make it to the postseason.
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