We're less than three weeks from Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament and a recent 5-1 run from the Saint Joseph's Hawks has some fans thinking that the Hawks can indeed garner a bid to the "Big Dance." While it is looking increasingly likely that the Hawks will reach the 20-win plateau for the 7th time in Phil Martelli's 17 seasons on Hawk Hill, is it likely for the Hawks to receive an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament?
First, we'll have a look at some of the common keys to garnering an at-large bid. While overall record is important, it is inevitable that the selection committee will rely on RPI and more specifically, records of teams vs. the RPI top-50 and top-100 to help make decisions among the final few teams to get at-large bids.
According to St. Joe's alum Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology, he has St. Joe's listed in the "Next Four Out" category, 6 teams away from making the NCAA Tournament. The Hawks are in the top-50 in RPI and possess a 1-4 record vs. the RPI top-50 and a 6-7 record vs. the RPI top-100.
Despite the solid numbers against the RPI top-100 overall, the Hawks lack the marquee top-50 wins that would have helped bolster their overall profile. By comparison, Seton Hall, who is listed in the "Last Four In" category as the 2nd to last team in according to Lunardi's projection, have three top-50 RPI wins including a head-to-head win over St. Joe's during the third game of the season for each team at the Charleston Classic in November.
So, what will it take for the Hawks to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament? St. Joe's has three regular season games left plus the A-10 Tournament, with potentially two games against top-100 opponents, (St. Bonaventure is just outside the RPI top-100.) In my view, the Hawks will need to pick up at least four wins between now and the end of the season to secure an NCAA Tournament bid. One of those wins will need to be against a top-50 RPI opponent and the Hawks will have a chance at doing that on Saturday when they face off with Temple, who is currently in the top-20 in the RPI.
Four wins from the Hawks will leave them at either 22-11 or 22-12 depending on where those wins come. Regardless, St. Joe's will need to win against either Temple on Saturday, or knock off Temple, Saint Louis or Xavier during the A-10 Tournament to feel more secure about their chances of grasping an at-large bid to the "Big Dance."
It is interesting to note that St. Joe's has made the NCAA Tournament in five of the six prior seasons in which Martelli has won 20 or more games, with the exception being the 2005 NCAA Tournament. That season the Hawks wound up as runner-ups in the NIT.
Regardless of how the rest of the season turns out, St. Joe's fans should be excited with their school's progress this season, as well as their future considering that each scholarship player on the roster is slated to return next season.
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