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A Dry End To The Year; A Cold Start To 2014

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It was a transition day as a cold front pushed through this morning hence why our temperatures took a tumble this afternoon; the high temperature today was 46 at 10:42 this morning just before the front pushed through. The low hasn't been recorded yet for the day as overnight tonight temperatures will drop overnight with a mostly clear sky and the wind diminishes as well(expect a low in the lower and middle 20s).

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New Year's Eve will feature high pressure to our north, but it will be cloudy in the afternoon with a short wave to the west; I don't anticipate any snow showers at all, but highs will be just around 40. New Year's Eve night shall be chilly with lows in the lower 20s as that short wave pushes through and ushers in colder air, but we stay dry. New Year's Day will be dry with sunshine and then clouds with highs just in the middle 30s!

Now comes Thursday and Friday where by now you've probably seen across social media about a HUGE snowstorm.....

Just to let you know, that was just OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE!

There are other guidance products called the ENSEMBLE; this is actually all of the individual model members(between 10-20 of them) that are given the same initial data, but produce different solutions. The operational GFS and European model guidance this afternoon progged a huge snow event for the region, BUT the ensemble had it further to the south and east. Just for reference you can check out these ensembles:

GFS 500mb ensemble(12z): http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_12z/ensloop.html

GFS Surface pressure ensemble(12z): http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloop.html

European Ensemble(ECMWF): http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/silviott/models/ensembles/ecmwfens.php

Another issue that I brought up yesterday(and STILL will bring up) is that these two systems eventually have to phase(come together); but right now I am inclined to go with the idea of two separate "rounds" with clouds and some snow-to-rain mixed bag along the shore Thursday afternoon and then the clipper overnight for some light snowfall accumulation. It's reminiscent of February 8th 2013 where two systems didn't phase in time with the coastal low moved quickly to the northeast while the front was only across Ohio! Granted it did eventually phase at night and provided Long Island and then Southern New England with a few FEET of snow!

So that's my thinking right now and you can check out the 7-day forecast any time at www.scottderekwx.com/forecast.html.

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