After five months on the job, the Obama Administration has apparently learned that sharply-worded diplomatic letters and requests for negotiations mean little North Korea.
Pyongyang has responded to Mr. Obama's benign approach with a series of escalations and provocations, aimed at testing the limits of American patience and resolve. Since early February, Kim Jong-il's regime has (among other things) conducted its second nuclear test; launched a long-range missile that overflew Japan, fired at least a dozen short-range and anti-ship missiles; imprisoned two American journalists and threatened "massive retaliation" if the U.S. and its allies challenge the DPRK.
And, if that's not enough, various intelligence sources in the U.S., South Korea and Japan report that North Korea is preparing another Tapeodong-2 missile for launch, probably around July 4th. The TD-2 is the same type of missile that overflew Japan in April, before crashing into the western Pacific. This time around, the extended-range missile appears aimed at Hawaii.
In response, President Obama and his national security team appear to be taking a tougher approach, or at least they're laying the groundwork for a more forceful response. In recent days, Defense Secretary Robert Gates has announced plans to beef up missile defenses around Hawaii, positioning a powerful, sea-based radar near the islands, and directing deployment of a THAAD (Theater High Altitude Area Defense) missile battery to Hawaii.
Additionally, U.S. Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) missiles, based in Alaska and California, are said to be on higher alert. The GBI interceptors could be used to knock down the TD-2, as could the THAAD battery and specially-modified SM-3 surface-to-air missiles, fired from Aegis vessels modified the ballistic missile defense (BMD) mission. Aegis cruisers and destroyers with that capability are expected to deploy to the Sea of Japan and in waters around Hawaii. Collectively, these assets would provide a multi-layered defense against the North Korean missile.
But neither the Pentagon nor the White House has explained why these assets are suddenly necessary. Previous TD-2 tests, conducted in 2006 and earlier this year, were also aimed in the general direction of Hawaii. While both of those launches were less-than-successful, there was still reason for concern. In fact, the Bush Administration announced plans to intercept the 2006 launch, a move that became unnecessary when the missile failed just seconds after lift-off.
By comparison, Mr. Obama did not issue similar orders prior to the April launch, and deployed U.S. Aegis vessels just days before the launch window opened. There was some speculation that Tokyo forced the president's hand, announcing plans to intercept the missile--with its own Aegis destroyers--if the TD-2 threatened Japanese territory.
So why the change? We'd say it's a combination of several factors. First, even the most ardent proponents of diplomacy--the same folks who dominate Mr. Obama's national security team--are admitting that the current approach has failed. Efforts to downplay North Korean provocations (while pushing for tougher U.N. sanctions) have only inspired more mischief from Pyongyang. And, there's wide perception that Kim Jong-il has won these showdowns. A recent Fox News poll shows a majority of Americans--including registered Democrats--believe that Mr. Obama should be "tougher" with North Korea. Hardly a ringing endorsement of past policies.
Secondly, the recent DPRK nuclear test was a game-changer. While most experts believe it will take Pyongyang several years to develop a viable nuclear warhead for its long-range missile, we really don't know how much progress has been made in that area. At some point, a missile test could become a "bolt from the blue," attack, with a TD-2 delivering a nuclear weapon against an American target. Against that backdrop, no American president can afford to leave our territory undefended.
Finally, the BMD deployments also suggest that the Obama team preparing for some sort of show-down with North Korea, events that could culminate in a TD-2 launch against Hawaii. Earlier this week, the Pentagon announced that the USS John S. McCain has been dispatched to "intercept" a DPRK vessel believed to be carrying missile or nuclear materials. Pyongyang would interpret the seizure or boarding of the ship as an "act of war," setting the stage for some sort of retaliatory act. A TD-2 shot in the direction of our 50th state is well within the realm of possibilities.
Put another way, movement of the THAAD battery and BMD radar to Hawaii suggests the Obama Administration is preparing to deal more forcefully with North Korea. But that realization raises a couple of salient questions. Namely, what took the White House so long, and (beyond the BMD moves) what Is Mr. Obama prepared to do in defending our interests--and those of our allies--in the Pacific?
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