In the weather world, the last few days have been full of discussion regarding a coastal storm that computer guidance flip-flopped worse than politicians. With its effects possibly approaching, there's a better handle on the forecast. Otherwise, it's milder weather for the second full week of autumn.
From Saturday afternoon's computer model runs, the focus is on an offshore storm that's just gathering itself in the Bermuda Triangle. As high pressure dominates the Northeast's weather this weekend, it will allow for the storm to head northward. How close is yet to be determined, but its effects are not expected to be major.
Using a suite of three main models, the American GFS, American NAM, and the Canadian GEM, two out of three keep the storm well offshore. The NAM is the most recent outlier with rain affecting most, if not all, of Long Island on Monday. While this brings a chance of showers to the official forecast, the better chance will be out east.
Considering the models show the center of the storm staying at minimum 100-200 miles offshore of Montauk Point, and showing a not-so-strong storm anyway, it's a close call and a brush with a little rain thanks to its outer bands. Some swells, higher waves, and extra rip currents are possible as the storm passes.
Other than this storm, a cold front approaches by late Sunday, and fizzles out. It does push the ocean storm away and high pressure builds back in for next week. Highs for the next several days will be in the 70s. Morning lows are in the 40s and 50s.