With new polls released over the last 24 hours showing President Obama doing gaining on Mitt Romney the national race is now tied with just five days until the the presidential election. Romney has led in the national polls for much of the last month, and had a one point lead just four days ago. Now Obama has pulled even with Romney, and maintains an edge over Romney in the sate polls.
A Real Clear Politics average of ten polls from the last week has both Romney and Obama garnering 47.4 percent of likely voters. In the last update, Romney held just a 1.0 point lead on Obama in the RCP average. An average of the three tracking polls released over the last 72 hours shows Romney having the support of 48.0 percent of likely voters, compared to 47.3 percent support for Obama. A Talking Points Memo poll tracker, which includes many polls not included in the RCP average, gives Obama an edge with 47.4 percent of the national vote compared to 46.1 percent for Romney.
An overview of the most recent national polls pitting Romney against Obama can be seen below. All polls are not created equally. The methods of each pollster vary, and many pollsters will adjust their numbers after their survey is complete. Ideally, these adjustments make the poll more accurate, but that is not always the case Finally, many pollsters also have a track record for either accurately predicting elections, or favoring one side over the other
As new polls are released, I will be providing continual updates, posting each poll along with some analysis on each pollster’s past reputation and performance. To receive more updates, follow me on Twitter or Facebook. I will also provide analysis on the latest trends.
Poll of 1500 “likely voters” taken from 10/28/2012 to 10/30/12
- Romney 49%
- Obama 47%
Analysis: Last week Rasmussen had Romney with a four point lead, so according to their data Obama has gained two points over that time. Rasmussen uses a fairly large sample and by "tracking" their results over multiple days the pollster should be able to produce more accurate results.
However, Rasmussen's poll uses a “likely voter” sampling method, which tends to weigh Republicans slightly higher than Democrats. In the past, Rasmussen has been accused of producing biased results that tend to favor Republican candidates. Rasmussen does not include cell phone users, but attempts to compensate by using an “online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.”
In 2008 Rasmussen’s final poll matched up well with the final result in the race, and its polls in the final month were fairly consistent. However, in 2010 a study done by the American Research Group found Rasmussen to be the least accurate of the eleven pollsters they evaluated. Rasmussen uses a sample that has “baseline targets” of 35.8% Republicans, 33.0% Democrats, and 31.2% “unaffiliated” voters, despite other surveys that show Democrats' actually outnumbering Republicans in the general population.
Survey 1128 likely voters taken from 10/28/2012 to 10/30/2012
- Obama 46%
- Romney 46%
Analysis: Fox News last poll of the national race came in early October, and the pollster then showed Obama with a one point lead on Romney. The cable news outlet is known for its relatively harsh treatment of President Obama, but their polls actually favored Obama through much of the year.
In 2008 Fox News performed well in terms of accuracy, but not well in terms of consistency in predicting the 2008 presidential election. In his June 2010 ratings, Nate Silver rated Fox News as right at the average mark for a “Default/New Pollster.”
Poll of 1288 likely voters taken from 10/27/2012 to 10/30/2012
- Romney 49%
- Obama 49%
Analysis: Like Fox News, the ABC News/Washington Post poll shows the race tied. Last week, this pollster gave Romney a one point lead so according to their data President Obama has made a small gain over that time.
In 2008 ABC News/Washington post performed poorly in terms of accuracy in predicting the presidential election results, but performed well in terms of consistency. The pollster is rated well above average by Nate Silver in his June 2010 ratings.
CBS News/NY Times
Poll of 563 likely voters taken from 10/25/2012 to 10/28/2012
- Obama 48%
- Romney 47%
Analysis: The CBS News/NY Times poll has the smallest sample size of the polls listed here which also gives their survey they greatest margin of error. According to their data, Obama has a small one one point lead on Romney.
CBS/NY Times did not release a breakdown of how their sample was split up between Republican and Democratic voters. In 2008 CBS/NY Times was one of the least accurate and consistent pollsters in the final month of the race. CBS/NY Times was rated above average by Nate Silver in 2010, but below Rasmussen, Gallup, and NBC/Wall Street Journal.
Poll of 713 likely voters taken from 10/25/2012 to 10/28/2012
- Obama 50%
- Romney 45%
Analysis: The National Journal's last poll, released in late September, gave Obama a seven point lead on Romney. This poll is likely an outlier, as their five point lead for Obama is by far the largest of any in the group.
There is also no data available to see how the National Journal performed in the 2008 election, so at this point the pollster's reputation for accuracy and consistency is unkown.
Pew Research
Poll of 1495 likely voters taken from 10/24/2012 to 10/28/2012
- Obama 47%
- Romney 47%
Analysis: Pew had Obama up by as many as ten points a few months ago, and then had Romney up by four points in early October. Their most recent poll now has the race tied.
In June of 2010 Pew was rated well above average by Nate Silver, just above Gallup but below Selzer and Co. and AP/GFK. In 2008 Pew performed very badly in terms of consistency, with their results varying widely in the month before the election. However, Pew scored well in terms of accuracy, with its final poll coming very close the actual Election Day results.
Gallup Tracking
Poll of 2700 likely voters taken from 10/22/2012 to 10/28/2012
- Romney 51%
- Obama 46%
Analysis: Gallup was releasing a tracking poll everyday, but has stopped recently due to Hurricane Sandy. It is not known when Gallup will start releasing their national tracking poll once again. Their last release gave Romney a five point lead. Gallup's national poll has become by far the most controversial over the last week, as they are the only pollster showing Romney with a lead of more than two points. Some have claimed Gallup's numbers stray too far from the average to really be taken seriously.
Gallup has, by far, the largest sample size, with 2700 likely voters, which decreases the margin of error for their polls to just +/-2.0%. Gallup also includes data from six days, which theoretically will even out their results, but the large date range could also be including old/bad data. Early in the election cycle Gallup sampled all registered voters, but now only include likely voters in their sample, which may aid Romney.
Gallup’s polls varied greatly in the 2008 race, at one point having McCain ahead by ten points before producing a final prediction with Obama up by eight points. Gallup has not released the internal breakdown of their sampling. Gallup was rated above average by Nate Silver in 2010.
Poll of 957 likely voters taken from 10/22/2012 to 10/27/2012
- Obama 45%
- Romney 44%
Analysis: Like Gallup, IBD/CSM/TIPP tracking poll has been put on pause temporarily by Hurricane Sandy. Their last poll shows Obama with a one point lead.
In 2008, IBD/TIPP performed well in projecting the final result of the race, predicting a 7.2-point margin of victory for President Obama, which was the exact margin of victory for Obama once all the votes were countered. However, IBD/TIPP polls varied greatly in terms of consistency in the months leading up to the election, showing Obama with only a one-point lead as late as October 22, 2008. The two firms were not scored by Nate Silver in his 2010 June ratings.
Poll of 1,000 likely voters taken from 10/22/2012 to 10/25/2012
- Romney 49%
- Obama 48%
Analysis: POLITICO/GWU/Battlegound's poll falls well in line the the average of all polls. The poll is the oldest of all the polls listed here, not inlcuding any daya from the last six days.
GWU Battleground scored well in terms of accuracy in predicting the final result of the 2008 election, but very poorly in terms of consistency in the month leading up the election.
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