Raleigh Weather Discussion
It will continue to feel close to what early January should feel like the next 4 days with highs likely in the 50-54 range and lows in the 27-33 range. Today and tomorrow look sunny but we will see an increase in clouds on Sunday and an outside shot of some rain. Most data keeps the rain off shore but some data does show some light rain in the piedmont on Sunday. It will likely be cloudy. After a brief cool shot Monday, a significant warm-up begins.
I still think there is a shot at hitting 70 one day mid to late next week, but it is hard to pinpoint which day that will be. The main forecast problem is a cut-off low that will develop over Texas early to mid next week. The models are differing as usual with these features, on the timing this system would eject out. The GFS is fasted with the ECMWF the slowest. I went with a compromise of the system moving through the area Wednesday night into Thursday with some rain.
This system will not really bring any cool air with it, as another trough amplifies in the Rockies and we quickly return to warm, southwest flow, as next weekend looks warm. This trough though will send another cold front and rain chance towards the region by 1/13 or so.
So in general the next few days are cool, before we significantly warm up starting Tuesday.
National Extended Weather Discussion
There is certainly some potential in the pattern for cold as we head into the middle of the month. However, most of the ensemble model guidance keeps the warm pattern in the east through at least 1/17 to 1/18 and I think it will probably be 1/20 or so before it can really break down. However, the models do show a tendency for Greenland Block variation of the –NAO to form in the 11-15 day period which is typically a cool signal. They do disagree though on the amount of ridging in Alaska and up towards the North Pole. The GFS Ensemble and to an extent the Canadian Ensemble shows significant ridging in those areas, which would be a harbinger of a likely cold pattern for the US particularly with the –NAO also present. However, the Euro Ensembles have consistently shown a lack of positive height anomalies in those regions, meaning a likely continued Pacific air intrusion and bottling up of cold air into Canada, although the pattern as a whole looks to be less warm even in the Euro Ensembles.
Last night’s Euro weeklies came in colder looking for weeks 3 and 4, which would be from 1/20 into early February. The CFS weeklies continue to look cold in that period as well. Again this is supported by the expected progression of the MJO wave currently in a warm phase. Most of the models I see want to focus convection near the dateline in about 2 weeks which would support the colder pattern. We shall see.