February 1, 2012. Las Vegas. With the Presidential primary in Florida behind us, the campaigns now head north and west. Beginning this Saturday and continuing for seven days, four different state caucuses will be held. Starting in Nevada, the race then goes to Maine, Colorado and finally Minnesota. With all four races being caucuses and not primaries, certain candidates have a distinct advantage.
In case you missed it, here are the results of last night’s Florida Republican Presidential primary:
Florida Primary results
Mitt Romney – 46 percent
Newt Gingrich – 32
Rick Santorum – 13
Ron Paul – 7
Other – 1
The first and most obvious advantage goes to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. In 2008, even with Sen. John McCain eventually winning the Republican nomination, Romney won each of the four upcoming caucuses.
Nevada
In Nevada, the caucus will be held this coming Saturday, February 4, 2012. Two candidates have a distinct advantage – Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Both candidates finished one and two in the 2008 Republican caucus and neither campaign ever left. In Rep. Paul’s case, his Nevada organizers have made a concentrated effort to infiltrate the state Republican Party leadership after a dispute over delegates four years ago. Those Paul backers are now in a position to at least keep the contest fair. In Mitt Romney’s case, Nevada has a large number of Mormons, just like Mr. Romney. They came through for him in 2008 and are expected to again.
In the most recent poll, the Las Vegas Review Journal showed a tight race getting tighter in Nevada. Frontrunner Mitt Romney’s numbers are down from his peak in the state while Newt Gingrich is rapidly climbed to second and Ron Paul doubled his poll number in the last two months.
Nevada Presidential Poll (Dec. 20)
Mitt Romney – 33 percent
Newt Gingrich – 29
Ron Paul - 13
Rick Santorum – 3
Maine
After Nevada, the Presidential race heads to Maine for a 7-day caucus. Beginning on Feb. 4, the final vote will be held on February 11. Already, Texas Congressman Ron Paul has stated he believes Maine is one of his best chances at scoring his first victory. Another caucus, Maine’s system lends itself well to a candidate with a grassroots following and a large number of volunteers in the precincts.
While there are no recent polls from Maine right now to show how each candidate is currently stacking up, the 2008 Maine Republican caucus results give the early advantage to Mitt Romney. He won the state four years ago over four opponents with an impressive 52 percent of the vote. For his part, Rep. Ron Paul captured a respectable 18 percent in the state.
Colorado
Colorado's caucus will be held February 7. Again there are no recent polls showing the current standings in the state. If 2008 is any indication however, Mitt Romney should do very, very well. Colorado was Romney’s third best finish four years ago. At the time, he trounced McCain, Paul and Huckabee, capturing 60 percent of the vote.
Minnesota
The Minnesota caucus will be held the same day as Colorado's, February 7. Even though Mitt Romney won the Minnesota caucus in 2008, he’s trailing Newt Gingrich in the most recent poll from the state, according to last week’s survey from Public Policy Polling.
Minnesota Presidential Poll (from Jan. 25)
Newt Gingrich – 36 percent
Mitt Romney – 18
Rick Santorum – 17
Ron Paul – 13
The polls show the former Speaker leading Mitt Romney in every voter demographic, including men, women, Republicans and Tea Party supporters. With its large number of independent voters, electing the Independence Party's Jesse Ventura Governor in 1998, the voter make-up of Minnesota is considered similar to Iowa.
Unlike primaries, caucuses benefit the candidates with the largest and most organized ground team. With the incredible amount of money Mitt Romney is spending this election season however, voter support may not matter. In Florida, Romney outspent Newt Gingrich more than 4 to 1 and he benefitted greatly. He also spent more than the other three candidates combined. CNN says that 92 percent of all the campaign ads run in Florida were negative attack ads.
Will money, Super PACs and negative ads beat grassroots support in 2012? Americans in four more states will find out next week. For a complete list and calendar of all the 2012 state primaries and caucuses, visit this column's summary titled, '2012 Presidential Primary Election Calendar'.
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