Now this is where it gets interesting. We already know that there are going to be a bunch of very technically ambitious programs in the men's event at next week's 2013 World Figure Skating Championships. It's becoming increasingly obvious that the likelihood that all of the top five finishers will try and/or land at least two quads in their free skates is pretty high.
Schedule: Universal Sports/CBC/Eurosport
Here's a look at the jumps-only base values for the four favorites, plus a couple outsiders whom North American skating fans will be interesting in following. (Side note: I was originally going to also include Florent Amodio, but he hasn't had a consistent set of elements this season in his programs for me to get his planned elements right.)
SHORT PROGRAM
(*) indicates a 10% bonus
Based on base values alone, it's fairly even between most of the top guys because they do one quad. The one who has the big advantage is Reynolds, who does two quads in his short. Of course, that's a risky proposition, and the fact is that he doesn't have a great track record in getting his quads ratified.
- Kevin Reynolds (34.43): 4sal3toe (14.60), 3axel (8.50), 4toe* (11.33)
- Yuzuru Hanyu (30.76): 4toe (10.30), 3axel* (9.35), 3lutz3toe* (11.11)
- Javier Fernandez (30.11): 4sal (10.50), 3axel (8.50), 3lutz3toe* (11.11)
- Max Aaron (29.95): 4sal3toe (14.60), 3lutz (6.00), 3axel* (9.35)
- Patrick Chan (29.91): 4toe (10.30), 3axel (8.50), 3lutz3toe* (11.11)
- Daisuke Takahashi (29.75): 4toe (10.30), 3lutz3toe (10.10), 3axel* (9.35)
The only other skater in the bunch confident enough to put two quads in the short is Fernandez, but he hasn't competed that yet. Now, it may not be this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if that happens for the Olympic season.
FREE SKATE
(*) indicates a 10% bonus
The big caveat, of course, is that these are the planned programs. These base values are based on programs (or a combination of programs) that they have done this season. The two three-quad guys are obviously up there in base value, with Reynolds having a slight advantage over Fernandez.
- Kevin Reynolds (75.53): 4sal (10.50), 4toe (10.30), 3axel3toe (12.60), 4toe3toe* (15.84), 2axel* (3.63), 3flip3loop* (11.44), 3lutz* (6.60), 3sal* (4.62)
- Javier Fernandez (74.21): 4toe (10.30), 4sal3toe (14.60), 3axel (8.50), 4sal* (11.55), 3lutz2toe* (8.03), 3loop* (5.61), 3flip1/2loop3sal* (11.00), 3sal* (4.62)
- Yuzuru Hanyu (72.41): 4toe (10.30), 4sal (10.50), 3flip (5.30), 3axel3toe* (13.86), 3axel2toe* (10.78), 3loop* (5.61), 3lutz2toe2toe* (9.46), 3lutz* (6.60)
- Max Aaron (72.07): 4sal3toe (14.60), 4sal (10.50), 3axel2toe* (10.78), 3lutz* (6.60), 3axel* (9.35), 2axel1/2loop3sal* (8.80), 3flip* (5.83), 3loop* (5.61)
- Daisuke Takahashi (70.25): 4toe (10.30), 4toe3toe (14.60), 3axel (8.50), 3axel2toe* (10.78), 3loop* (5.61), 3sal* (4.62), 3lutz2toe2loop* (10.01), 3flip* (5.83)
- Patrick Chan (68.32): 4toe3toe (14.40), 4toe (10.30), 3lutz (6.00), 3axel* (9.35), 3loop* (5.61), 3lutz2toe* (8.03), 3flip1/2loop3sal* (11.00), 2axel* (3.63)
The most mathematically interesting bit happens with the two-quad guys. Takahashi, Aaron, and Hanyu all have two triple axels, which bring them a point or two higher than Chan.
TOTAL PLANNED SCORES
- Kevin Reynolds - 109.96 (5 quads, 2 triple axels)
- Javier Fernandez - 104.32 (4 quads, 2 triple axels)
- Yuzuru Hanyu - 103.17 (3 quads, 3 triple axels)
- Max Aaron - 102.02 (3 quads, 3 triple axels)
- Daisuke Takahashi - 100.00 (3 quads, 3 triple axels)
- Patrick Chan - 98.23 (3 quads, 2 triple axels)
All of this is to say that clean programs and rotated jumps will be important.
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