2012 Grammy Awards: Record of the Year nominees
•Rolling in the Deep, Adele
•Holocene, Bon Iver
•Grenade, Bruno Mars
•The Cave, Mumford & Sons
•Firework, Katy Perry
The big question this year at the Grammy Awards is not who will win Record of the Year - everyone knows it's going to be Adele - but whether we can even concoct any plausible scenario in which Adele loses.
Let's break it down. Bruno Mars is likable enough and his music is non-threatening, like traditional Grammy voters prefer. But anyone who might normally vote for him is going to go for Adele, so he's out.
Occasionally, a rock artist can pull an upset in a big category when the vote is evenly split among all five nominees, which is what happened last year when Arcade Fire shockingly took home Album of the Year.
But that won't happen here, because Bon Iver and Mumford & Sons both appeal to the same general demographic - indie-minded folk/pop/rock listeners. If either was nominated alone, they might have a shot, but with both in the category, they're done.
By process of elimination, that only leaves Katy Perry, who has never won a Grammy, despite all her nominations last year. Voters could be impressed by her record-tying streak of five straight #1 singles. But no one who takes his or her vote seriously could choose Perry over Adele.
That means that there is absolutely zero chance that Adele fails to win Record of the Year. The talented British vocalist should be ready to give multiple speeches on Grammy night.
2012 Grammy Awards: Record of the Year prediction
Should win: Holocene
Will win: Rolling in the Deep
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