The anticipation of a very active tropical season for the Atlantic this year has been seen by almost every forecast. The official season begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th. The latest outlook posted by NOAA on May 27th, considered a group of factors that are all lining up to possibly rival the activity seen in 2005 when a record 28 names storms formed in the Atlantic basin, including the infamous Katrina.
For simplicity, the graphics posted by NOAA can now be found in the slide show below.
Here is the general breakdown of what can be expected this year for the Atlantic Basin:
85% chance of an above normal season
Factors:
1. The tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high-activity era in the Atlantic basin that began in 1995
2. Exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region)
3. Either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, with La Niña becoming increasingly likely.
NOAA estimates a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
- 14-23 Named Storms,
- 8-14 Hurricanes
- 3-7 Major Hurricanes
- An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.
NOAA Estimates a 70% chance of the following ranges
For More:
2010 Hurricane Season: Atlantic Names
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