Now that the 2009 NFL regulars season is over, we know who will know the order of the first nine picks of the 2010 NFL Draft. Of course these picks may be traded, but we can discuss that at a later date.
For pick #10, that will either go to the Denver Broncos to complete the Jay Cutler trade, or to he Jacksonville Jaguars. Since the Jaguars and Bears finished with an identical 7-9 record, and their stretch of schedule was identical as well, the picking order will be determined by a coin flip.
For the #16 pick it will either go to the San Francisco 49ers to complete a 2009 draft day trade with the Carolina Panthers, or to the Tennessee Titans. Again both team finished with a 8-8 record and their strength of schedule were both .539, given that their opponent’s records were an identical 138-118.
There is also a tie between the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans. They both finished 9-7, missed the playoffs and had an identical strength of schedule. A coin flip will decide which team gets the 19th and 20th pick in the 2010 draft.
Picks 20-32 will be determined by how the NFL playoffs play out. With that being said here is a look at the order of the first nine picks on the 2010 NFL draft:
1. St. Louis Rams
2. Detroit Lions
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Washington Redskins
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Seattle Seahawks
7. Cleveland Browns
8. Oakland Raiders
9. Buffalo Bills
In the case of Seahawks, Browns, and Raiders who all finished 5-11, the draft order is determined by reverse strength of schedule. The Seahawks had the weakest strength of schedule so they get the highest picks.
The math works out like this:
The Seahawks 2009 opponents had an overall record of 122-134 giving them a .477 strength of schedule. The Browns’ opponents had an overall record of 131-125 for a strength of schedule of .512, and the Raiders 2009 opponents have an overall record of 135-121 giving them a strength of schedule of .527.
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