AP/Steve C. Wilson
The Utah Jazz (53-29) enter the 2010 NBA Playoffs as the No. 5 seed after losing in heartbreaking fashion to the Phoenix Suns at EnergySolutions Arena in the season finale.
The 100-86 loss to the Suns on Wednesday night not only squandered Utah’s opportunity to win the game, it also gave the Denver Nuggets the No. 4 seed and the Northwest Division title with a better head-to-head record though the teams had the same overall mark.
Had the Jazz won against Phoenix, Utah would have had the No. 3 seed and home court advantage against Portland. Instead, the Jazz take to the road in this best-of-seven series, beginning Saturday night at Pepsi Center in Denver.
By the numbers:
Scoring - Utah: 104.2 (4th) Denver: 106.5 (3rd)
Opp. scoring - Utah: 98.9 (19th) Denver: 102.3 (11th)
Shooting - Utah: 49.1% (2nd) Denver: 46.8% (21st)
Rebounding - Utah: 42.2 (12th) Denver: 41.4 (20th)
Assists - Utah: 26.7 (1st) Denver: 20.9 (18th)
Turnovers - Utah: 15.2 (5th) Denver: 13.8 (20th)
Breaking the two teams down further, the Jazz are 1-3 overall against Denver, shooting at about its season average (49.1 percent) in four regular season meetings. The Jazz shot 39.4 percent against Denver and 78 percent from the charity stripe, which is well above their season average of 74 percent.
The Jazz, however, did not rebound the ball well against the Nuggets this season, held well below their 42.2 season average over 82 games. The key to the Jazz’ success this season has been their unselfishness with the ball. Ranked No. 1 during the season, the Nuggets did hold the Jazz under their league average, only allowing 25.3 assists per game.
But the area in which the Jazz must improve in the series is turnovers. It is the key for the Jazz to stay in the series and withstand the expected onslaught of Nuggets talent and athletic ability. The Jazz were fifth highest in the league in the category, despite scoring over 107 points in four games against Denver. But the kicker is Denver scored 111 points in the four games, and the Jazz must find a way to limit Denver’s dynamic duo of Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony. The Nuggets stars lit up Utah for about 61 points per contest.
AP/Patrick Semansky
Point guard
Deron Williams/Ronnie Price/Sundiata Gaines vs. Chauncey Billups/Anthony Carter/Ty Lawson
Williams is enjoying an All-Star caliber year and having led the Jazz back to the postseason is a huge accomplishment, but in this series that’s where similarities end. Price averages about 4 points per game and Gaines a little over three. The discrepancy sums up the Jazz’ chances thusly: if Williams does not have a markedly better series than Billups it would be a major setback for the Jazz, unless Price and/or Gaines steps up in a big way that nobody has seen. Price has playoff experience, and Gaines not only came into the league fresh, but hit the game-winner against the potential NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers in Salt Lake City a few months ago.
As for Billups, the veteran has seen players like Williams before. While Mr. Big Shot is not even remotely in the realm of Williams’ ability at his advanced age, he is known--like his moniker attests--to hit shots when it counts. He also has a few more rings than Williams, which in the playoff realm of thinking, counts for more than you may think. Carter has been largely a no-show and so has Lawson over the last few months, although he did have a special moment or two against the Jazz.
At the end of the day, the Nuggets simply have too many weapons at this position and it would honestly take a super-special game or two from either Price or Gaines to torque Denver’s sizeable advantage in Utah’s favor.
Edge: Even
Shooting guard
Wesley Matthews/Kyle Korver/Othyus Jeffers vs. Arron Afflalo/J.R. Smith/Coby Karl
With the high likelihood of Matthews being reassigned to guard Anthony in the wake of Kirilenko’s absence it throws into motion the question Jazz fans have asked themselves all season long. Is Kyle Korver ready to start in place of Matthews at the position?
The answer is not really, but with AK-47 out the Jazz will have little choice but to start the sharpshooter from Creighton and hope that his defense--which is suspect at its very best--will slow down not Afflalo, but J.R. Smith, the one player the Jazz must keep an eye on in the series.
Jeffers is simply too young to handle the duty, but with Sloan being a defensive mastermind that he is, usually--except for this year, of course--one could see Jeffers getting more PT and possibly being asked to handle Smith in the rotation.
The key for the Nuggets is getting over to the weak side of the court to help defend the Jazz’ pick-and-roll. That’s how Afflalo earns his keep and in this series, he couldn’t have asked for a better assignment. Korver will live and die by the three-point shot, as his 53 percent leads the league.
So Afflalo will be counted on to stop Korver from going berserk on the Denver perimeter. Where Smith comes in is simple, provided he is in his right frame of mind. His job will be to provide instant scoring off the bench and a spark when the Nuggets need it.
Another player to watch out for, and one who will be playing for something, presumably his father, Nuggets head coach George Karl, is son Coby. Again, the advantage here clearly goes to Denver, who simply has too much firepower in its arsenal for Utah to keep up.
Edge: Nuggets
Small forward
C.J. Miles vs. Carmelo Anthony/Joey Graham/Renaldo Balkman
It’s a near certainty that Miles will start at small forward. What is not is how successful he will be. This positional breakdown is probably the most cut-and-dry of all. Stop Anthony from getting to the rim--and the free-throw line--and you have a chance. Don’t, and it could be a long series.
Miles will need to be the Jazz’ X-factor, a term the team is fond of using in its promotional campaigns. Let us take the notion one step beyond and say that Miles is Utah’s answer to Kirilenko, since he’s out for the series with a strained calf muscle.
Is Miles ready to play the kind of hot potato that the Jazz are known for this season? Can he play 30 to 35 minutes per night? And will he score more than his 10 points attest? Because let’s be honest here; 10 points per game will not get the job done, not against ’Melo.
Speaking of Anthony, the fact he’s been very complimentary of the Jazz and its situation going into the series does not bode well for anyone, especially the opponent. Hearing ’Melo talk in the Denver Post makes one think of a player who has something to prove, and that can’t be good for the Jazz.
Couple that with his ringing endorsement of acting coach Adrian Dantley while head coach George Karl is away recovering from chemotherapy and you might say the guy has something or somebody to play for.
Edge: Nuggets
AP/Ben Margot
Power forward
Carlos Boozer/Paul Millsap vs. Kenyon Martin/Malik Allen/Johan Petro
The one spot on the floor where the Jazz actually can flex its muscle is at the 4 spot. Boozer’s brief absence caused shockwaves along the wooden parquet of EnergySolutions Arena on Wednesday, as Millsap proved he is not the player with the No. 5 Jazz jersey.
Boozer brings not only an innate ability to run the Jazz’ offense with Williams, but also a new found joy to the game--not to mention a hunger for baskets and boards--that Millsap is still developing in his own game. That said, there are few position tandems in the league like Boozer and Millsap, and if Sloan can manage to get both on the floor at the same time--for example, Millsap at the 3 and Booz at four--the Jazz might be able to take advantage, for lack of a better term.
Martin has been banged up all season, and this is certainly not the time for Denver to go into a matchup that currently, looks so one-sided that the Nuggets may well concede baskets to the Jazz tandem and call it good. The one thing, however, that Denver has at this position is length. The question is, will it be enough to bother Boozer and Millsap?
Edge: Jazz
Center
Mehmet Okur/Kyrylo Fesenko/Kosta Koufos vs. Nene/Chris Andersen
The $1,000,000 question of the day is how healthy is Mehmet Okur. The Turkish assassin looked fairly mobile--save for a few grimaces--in Wednesday’s loss to Phoenix. With AK-47 out, Okur will be counted on to do the things Kirilenko would have done. Namely, filling up space inside while the Jazz runs its offense and getting down the floor in transition.
He’s not known for his defense, so his three-point shooting will be crucial in this series. Also big to the Jazz’ chances is if Fesenko--who has shown glimmers of hope--gets rolling inside and gives Okur a few minutes of rest. Don’t count out Koufos, either, because with Denver’s big bodies and length it’s entirely likely the Ohio State product will see a few minutes here and there.
Nene is nowhere near the offensive threat that Okur is. His best years have passed, seemingly, because he has a tendency to play well for a period of time and fade away for the remainder. What Nene shows up in this series will likely determine how well Okur plays. The wildcard is Andersen, the flashy and sometimes brilliant but always tattooed big man whose length causes every team a problem. He is a foul waiting to happen, and his ability to cause havoc in the paint enables the Nugs other big men, like Anthony, to roam free and put up shot after shot.
Edge: Jazz
Coach
Jerry Sloan vs. Adrian Dantley
Even with the emotional edge of a former Jazzman coaching against his old team in what could be the most contested playoff series of them all, A.D. still doesn’t hold a candle to Sloan, a Hall Of Fame legend in the playing and coaching ranks. The story here is that Denver is without its head coach, the also-legendary George Karl for the first series at the very least, according to numerous reports. But the Jazz have played at times like a team knowing its pieces might also be taken apart, just as the Nuggets know that life can be short and sometimes fragile.
One thing is clear: it will be an exciting series filled with points (lots of them) and enough transition baskets that will make one think they’re watching a hockey game, not a hoops contest.
Edge: Jazz
Sound off! Which team do you think wins the series and why?
For more info on the Utah Jazz:
NBA-Playoffs-Utah-Jazz-enter-first-round-against-Denver-Kirilenko-out-Boozer-to-play--Video
Did-NBA-Commisioner-deny-forward-Carlos-Boozer-an-AllStar-shot-due-to-summer-antics
Deron-Williams-gets-an-AllStar-honor-that-he-deserves
Comments
Nuggets in five. Why? For several reasons, but for one mainly: the Jazz do not know how to rise to the challenge of the NBA's second season. All the other reasons don't matter because of that. The Stockton-Malone era was the franchise's best shot at ever winning an NBA title.
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