Gordon Beckham hit .270/.347/.460 in his rookie year. (AP photo/Ben Margot)
On June 1, Ozzie Guillen gave a rather blunt assessment of prized prospect Gordon Beckham, who was hitting very well in Triple-A Charlotte while Josh Fields was struggling in the majors:
The last thing we worry about is Beckham, and I don't know why people in Chicago fell in love with this kid...He's a great player, he's going to be in the big leagues, he's going to be a big part of this organization pretty soon. But we don't have Beckham on our mind right now. I don't and I'm the one making the lineup. If we have Beckham here, we're in trouble.
Why did people in Chicago fall in love with Beckham even before he was promoted to the majors? Maybe it was because he nearly wrestled the starting second base job away from Chris Getz in spring training. Maybe it was because he continued his great hitting in the minors, hitting .326/.378/.526 with 23 doubles between Birmingham and Charlotte. Or maybe it was because he was on the cusp of reaching the majors no more than 10 months after signing his first pro contract.
Either way, Beckham's promotion three days after Guillen made that comment only fueled the Beckham love amongst White Sox fans. And his performance in the majors certainly didn't curtail Beckham mania on the South Side.
***Note: To get the maximum impact of this review, play this on loop while reading:
Key stats
GP: 103
PA: 430
AB: 378
Batting average: .270
OBP: .347
Slugging: .460
OPS: .808
OPS+: 106
wOBA: .351
2B: 28
3B: 1
HR: 14
BB/SO: 41/65 (0.63)
RBI: 63
SB/CS: 7/4
BABIP: .294
UZR: -1.0
WAR: 2.1
Beckham's transition to the majors didn't go smoothly on the outset, though. He went hitless in his first four games before picking up his first major league hit off Dontrelle Willis June 9.
Once that first hit came, Beckham took off. From June 9 to August 9, Beckham hit .323/.388/.519 with 19 doubles in 220 plate appearances. And while he was doing that at the plate, his defense at third base improved with every game he played there.
However, Beckham slumped in the season's final two or so months. In 196 plate appearances from Aug. 10 through Oct. 4, Beckham hit .231/.321/.434 with just nine doubles, as he was getting beat pretty frequently with high fastballs.
Laying off high fastballs is an adjustment Beckham will have to make in 2010, but there's nothing in his track record that indicates he won't be able to make that adjustment. If he can eliminate that hole in his approach, there very well could be no by-the-book way to get him out.
What makes Beckham so good is his ability to drive the ball up the middle and to the opposite field. Nineteen of Beckham's 28 major-league doubles came to center and right field, which is a great indicator of Beckham's ability to spray the ball to all fields and not be just a dead-pull hitter.
If there are two types of players I like, it's pitchers who don't throw hard but keep the ball down and hitters who drive the ball to the opposite field. That's not saying I want a team of those players—those are just the types of pitchers and hitters I love watching.
Beckham falls into that category of hitters. Not since Magglio Ordonez have the Sox had a hitter who can consistently drive the ball into the right-center field gap with as much authority as Beckham.
So if Beckham gets a fastball on the outer third of the plate, he'll generally try to take it into right-center instead of trying to pull it. But when he does get that pitch on the inner third of the plate, he'll pull it—and that's where his home run power comes from.
It's not out of the realm of possibility for Beckham to hit 20-25 home runs in 2010. He's only 23, and an increase in home runs is often the case for a young hitter who gets a lot of doubles. Between Birmingham, Charlotte, and Chicago, Beckham hit 51 doubles—and eventually, some of those doubles are going to start leaving the park as home runs.
While that home run spike—or that Beckham will avoid a sophomore slump—is far from a certainty, he does have the best chance of future offensive success of any previous White Sox rookie position player. Brian Anderson, Josh Fields, Joe Borchard, etc. all had success in the minors, but never were able to make adjustments in the majors to have sustained success.
Fields came the closest, but injuries and a bad third base situation involving Joe Crede completely wiped out Fields' 2008. He never was able to improve upon his success of 2007, and I'd have to bet some of his struggles came because he didn't get much of an opportunity in '08 (although a lot of it came from his complete inability to hit high fastballs).
It's hard to see any major drop-off in Beckham's production that isn't because of an unsustainable drop in BABIP. He showed this year that he can be a great pure hitter at the major-league level, and any drop-off he experiences would be unexpected—at least to me.
What could be more interesting that Beckham's offensive potential is where he plays down the road. As a natural shortstop who never had played third in college or the minors, Beckham had a -0.8 UZR/150, and that number steadily improved throughout the year.
With some more work, Beckham probably could be a league-average defensive third baseman. I wouldn't expect him to be a defensive whiz like Joe Crede, but I also wouldn't expect him to be a defensive nightmare like Fields. Somewhere in between would be perfectly acceptable.
But Beckham may not be the Sox' long-term answer at third base. While Dayan Viciedo almost certainly won't play third base in the majors, the Sox do have an intriguing third base prospect in Brent Morel—who replaced an injured Viciedo in the Arizona Fall League yesterday.
Morel still has numerous hurdles to clear before he reaches "major-league ready" status, but he's impressed scouts with decent power and stellar defense. He's flown under the radar a bit in the Sox system, but those who do pay close attention to the Sox' farm system really like him.
If Morel's progress continues well, we could see Beckham supplant Getz/Jayson Nix at second base or Alexei Ramirez at shortstop. It's more likely that the Getz/Nix combo ("Nitz") will struggle and allow Beckham to move there, but Ramirez' only has two years left on his contract—and the Sox could consider trading him after next year, putting Beckham at short, and promoting Morel. But that's all way off in the future.
What we know for now is that Gordon Beckham is the most exciting offensive prospect the White Sox have had in a long, long time.
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