2009/2010 season preview: Nashville Predators

Can Steve Sullivan stay healthy this season? (Getty Images)

Today's entry will be done in haste. For you see, it is the first Saturday of college football season. As much as I love the NHL, and I do love it dearly, both the NFL and college football are closer to my heart. Today's entry comes from Nashville, which is I believe the home of Vanderbilt, who went to their first bowl game in years last season (college football!). It is also the home of the Predators. Fortunately for me, the Nashville Predators Examiner has (graciously) done most of the work for me, just as all the Examiners profiled thus far have.

1. How do you feel about your team's offseason?

It was an offseason of addition by retention in Nashville, as general manager David Poile kept forwards Steve Sullivan and Joel Ward in the fold. Both Sullivan and Ward were on the open market for a couple of hours on July 1st when the free agency period began, but Poile was able to convince both to re-sign with the Predators. Another top-six forward was on the wish list of Predator fans, but Poile did not sign one and will give the organization’s prospects the opportunity to earn the opportunity in camp.

Sullivan returned to the Predators lineup January 10th against the Chicago Blackhawks, nearly two years after being sidelined with a back injury that saw him miss 142 regular season and 11 playoff games. After sitting out the January 11th game in Chicago against the Blackhawks, Sullivan played in Nashville’s final 40 games.

After an understandably slow start, Sullivan rounded into his old form quickly and was a key part of Nashville’s late-season charge toward the playoffs that came up just short. He ended the season with eleven goals and 21 assists in 41 games played.

On June 18th, Sullivan became the first Predator to win an NHL award when he was given the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy, given to the NHL player who “best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship, and dedication to hockey.”

Signed to a two-way contract last offseason, Ward made the team in camp and never looked back. He came seemingly out of nowhere last season and made a significant contribution in 2008-09.

Prior to signing with Nashville, Ward spent three seasons in the Minnesota Wild organization. While he spent most of the time in the minors, he did register one assist in eleven NHL games played.

Given a chance at the NHL level with the Predators this past season, the Toronto native scored 17 goals and added 18 assists in 79 games played. In addition to his offensive contributions, Ward was a solid defensive forward, seeing significant time on the penalty kill.

Among the players not retained by the Predators were Greg Zanon, Vernon Fiddler, Radek Bonk, and Scott Nichol. The team will miss the faceoff ability of Bonk, and the penalty-killing prowess of Fiddler and Nichol, but the loss of Zanon will be the most difficult for the team to overcome.

Zanon’s 237 blocked shots were the third highest total in the NHL last season. And he, Fiddler, and Nichol were big contributors to the Predators 10th ranked penalty kill in 2008-09.

2. What is your team's biggest strength?

The top defensive pairing of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter is the team’s biggest strength. Both players had career seasons in 2008-09 and are virtual locks to make their respective countries’ Olympic teams when Canada (Weber) and the U.S. (Suter) name their squads for the 2010 Vancouver Games.

In 2008-09 Weber set a franchise record for goals by a defenseman with 23. Ten of his 23 goals came on the power play. He also recorded 30 assists and 192 hits. Weber was the only NHL blueliner to have more than 50 points and 175 hits. He played in his first career All-Star game and finished fourth in the voting for the Norris Trophy given to the league’s best defenseman. Look for Weber to become a perennial Norris contender for many seasons to come.

Suter also had a breakout campaign in 2008-09. His 38 assists and 45 points were both career highs. The smooth-skating Suter led the team in average ice time per game with 24:15, which set a Nashville franchise record. Three of his seven goals were game-winning-goals.

Suter and Weber, both just 24-years-old, were selected in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft held in Nashville. Suter was taken in the first round (7th overall) and Weber was taken in the second round (49th overall).

3. What is your team's biggest weakness?

For most of the franchise’s history, the team has struggled to score goals, and this will likely be a concern again in 2009-10. Having scored just 213 goals last season, only six teams scored fewer, and of those, just one (the New York Rangers) made the playoffs. The Predators power play struggled last season as well, connecting at a clip of just 15.7%.

A healthy Sullivan may mean an increased offensive output in 2009-10. In his final 29 games of last season, Sullivan had 29 points. He, along with the other members of Nashville’s top line, Jason Arnott and J.P. Dumont, will be looked upon to put up big offensive numbers. Arnott set a franchise record with 33 goals last season despite being limited by injuries to just 65 games played. His 33 goals tied a career high for the big center. Dumont led Nashville with 65 points last season, but scored just 16 goals. In 2007-08, Dumont set a career-high with 29 goals.

Continued offensive contributions from the blue line will also go a long way toward growing the team’s goal total.

4. Who is the most important player for your team this season?

The obvious answer to this question would be Weber, but in my opinion, it is goaltender Pekka Rinne.

In 52 games played last season as a rookie, Rinne posted a 29-15-4 record. His 2.38 goals against average, .917 save percentage, and seven shutouts were among the top ten of NHL goaltenders. He finished fourth in the voting for the Calder Trophy given to the league’s top rookie.

In addition to the challenge of playing in front of an offensively challenged team, he is playing in front of a very young defensive corps. As of now, the most tenured defenseman on the Predators blue line next season will be Dan Hamhuis. The 26-year-old Hamhuis has played 405 NHL games in his five-season career.

Unless the team can sign him to a contract extension, the 6’5” Finn can become an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. He will also be in competition for one of the three goaltender spots on the Finnish Olympic team, giving him more incentive to perform well again this season.

5. Which player do you think will surprise us this season?

Look for Martin Erat to score 30 goals this season.

Entering his seventh NHL season, Erat should be ready for a breakout offensive season. He is too offensively gifted to disappear from the score sheet for several game stretches as he has been known to do in his career thus far.

In 71 games last season, Erat scored 17 goals. He suffered a broken leg in late March after he was struck by a Weber slap shot. The 6’0” Czech recorded a career-high in goals in 2007-08 with 23.

6. What is your prediction for your team's 2009-2010 season?
Detroit and Chicago will finish one-two in the Central Division again this season, and the three through five spots are tough to handicap. I’m not sold on either St. Louis or Columbus, but I can’t say as I am sold on the Predators either. Nashville finished in fifth in the Central last season and tenth in the Western Conference, just three points out of the eighth and final playoff spot. I’ll predict the Predators finish third in the Central, and seventh in the West. A big reason for my prediction is a healthy Sullivan. In the 41 games Sullivan played in 2008-09, the team was 22-14-5, in the other 41; the team went 18-20-3. Extrapolating the numbers from the games he played last season, the Predators would have been a playoff team, and I think it is a distinct probability that if he remains in the lineup this season, Nashville will return to the postseason.

My take: It is quite possible that without all their injuries the Predators would have made the playoffs last season. If they can be completely healthy, and Pekka Rinne plays like he did last season, this team definitely has the looks of a playoff team. Their biggest problem, however, might be that the Western Conference looks so tough, and they have to play the Wings and the Blackhawks six times a season, plus the Blues and Jackets who won't be cakewalks either.

Additionally, while Arnott was great when healthy last season, he is getting up their in age. Can he perform like he did last season? Sullivan is a great story, but he doesn't have a good track record when it comes to health. Was Ward's season last year a fluke? It wouldn't be the first time a player had a career year they never live up to. I'm not sold on Erat scoring 25 goals, much less 30. David Legwand was very disappointing last season, can he rebound this year?

There are three players I am confident in on Nashville; Weber, Suter, and Rinne. Which means their entire offense is full of question marks. With the teams above them in the West not getting any worse this season, and a couple of teams below them getting better, this is going to be a tough year for the Preds. I could definitely see them making the playoffs, although selfishly I will be hoping they don't. Why? Because I can't stand Jordin Tootoo, and more to the point I can't stand that obnoxious train whistle whenever he is on the ice in Nashville. Until he is off the team, I'll have to root against them.