It is time for Joe Duffy’s Picks to improve on that 13-2 NFL run. We have six NFL winners up now. Enjoy our 26th year of public winning. Here is an actual premium pick as a winner:
TAMPA +3.5 New Orleans
We had the Saints last week because the Saints had a true playoff atmosphere thanks to Sean Payton returning from bountygate. The truth is despite being as strong of a spot play as gamblers will ever see in week 1 they still went down to the wire before escaping.
The Falcons outplayed them in total yards 419-367 and yards per play 7.1 to 6.5. Now they face a letdown hitting the road of a close home game to hated rivals. If anything, they showed last year’s unimpressive season was not an aberration.
On the other hand we all know how Tampa completely blew last week’s game, but should have little problem getting juiced for their home opener against an overrated foe.
From a fan’s standpoint, the Buccaneers made several dumb mistakes. From a handicapping standpoint, they made very correctable ones. Linebacker Lavonte David was flagged for hitting quarterback Geno Smith out of bounds, which set up New York’s game-winning field goal. Safeties Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson also were hit with 15-yard penalties for illegal hits.
Tampa was without LG Carl Nicks. He is making progress and may return to the fold for the Saints game. They may also get back FB Erik Lorig, another key blocker. The Vegas line is bloated because Tampa lost a game they should have won and New Orleans won a game, they should have lost. And that is coming from a guy who had the Saints laying the points against the Dirty Birds.
Keep in mind that we consider trends corroboration and not part of our primary metrics in picking winners. Spread trends (all records against the spread): Tampa is 14-4 off loss as road favorite while New Orleans is 24-44 if they allowed 6.5 or more yards per play last game.
Joe Duffy’s Picks Tampa (+3.5)
The NFL Specialist is doing what we are wont to do, win in the NFL. We are 13-2 going back to week 3 of the NFL preseason. We have two NFL Wise Guy plays among six winners (No. 6 added at 1:47 AM ET) in the NFL and probably more coming. Injuries, team chemistry, false public perception in which linesmaker accounts for, bench depth and more apply today. Get the picks now