Realpolitik and Referendums: The EU's role in deciding Omar al-Bashir's fate

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, left, drinks tea with
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah in Riyadh, Nov.17,2009
(AP Photo/ Burhan Ozbilici).

Last week, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir controversially decided against attending a summit of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in Istanbul, Turkey. Sudan’s state-run news agency, Suna, reported that “new developments” in the North African nation had forced him to stay put. President Bashir, who has controlled conflict-ridden Sudan for the past 20 years, is facing extradition for war crimes and crimes against humanity, charges levelled at him by the International Criminal Court (ICC). Yet, even though the arrest warrant was issued as far back as March, he has since travelled freely to other African countries. At the African Union summit earlier this year, the continent’s leaders, in defiance of the ICC, voted overwhelmingly in favour of supporting the infamous Bashir. And the BBC reports that Turkey, host of the OIC summit, initially assured the Sudanese president he would not be arrested if he chose to attend.

Mr. Bashir’s immediate concerns, however, are much closer to home. An impatient South Sudan, semi-autonomous since the conclusion of the civil war in 2005, will be voting in national presidential elections next year, and in 2011 will hold a referendum to decide on whether to secede from the domineering North. According to the BBC, Bashir has been accused by South Sudanese of fomenting tribal conflicts in order to prolong his tenure. He is also suspected of gerrymandering to prevent devolution. In July, The Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration redrew the boundaries of Abyei, a town on the North-South border, in a ruling that may prove to have even further reaching implications than Abyei’s oil-rich status would suggest.

Turkey, meanwhile, has been a candidate for accession to the European Union since 2005. It is believed, reports the BBC, that it was out of consideration for Turkey’s ambition to accede that Mr. Bashir chose not to attend the OIC summit. A plethora of requirements for joining the EU range from human rights advocacy to environmental protection; apparently, Brussels had reminded the Turkish Europhiles that it would be in their best interests if Bashir, dismissive of international law, were denied entry.

The EU had originally promised to base Turkey’s application solely on its ability to incorporate EU rules and values, reports the Economist. Yet, membership talks seem to have stalled, as certain European leaders continue to raise objections, taking advantage of a growing anti-Turkish sentiment among voters. The jingoistic French president Nicolas Sarkozy, for his part, is adamant that Turkey is in “Asia Minor”, and loath to inform the French electorate that Europe, with its broad boundaries, may one day stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Syria or Iraq.

According to the Economist, what once appeared to be a virtuous circle, with Turkish reformers enacting laws that improved their chances of re-election whilst winning European approval, is in danger of turning vicious. Turks are becoming impatient, as the prospect of accession grows ever distant. Far from being content with a beautiful sunset, they’re increasingly focused on developing relationships with their Arab neighbours, searching the horizon for new economic and political opportunities. Over the last seven years, reports the Economist, Turkey’s exports to the Middle East and North Africa have grown considerably. Ankara has taken full advantage of free-trade agreements with Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, and is lobbying for a similar pact with the Gulf Co-Operation Council, a regional bloc that includes Saudi Arabia. In addition to its growing status as an exporter to the Arab world, Turkey is also seen as an important bridge between east and west. An $11.7 billion gas pipeline to be laid across the country is expected to help meet Europe’s energy needs by supplying gas from as far afield as Egypt.

Yet, with the demise of regional powers such as Iraq, claims the Economist, Turkey has seized the opportunity to assert itself, and European demands will carry far less weight than they previously have. The Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is already taking a stand on various contentious global issues. At the Davos economic summit in Switzerland, earlier this year, Erdogan walked out of a debate with Israeli president, Shimon Peres, in a show of solidarity with Palestine. And he made a point of congratulating Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after his controversial election victory in June. According to the BBC, even Sudan’s Bashir has somehow found himself on Erdogan’s good side; Turkey’s Anatolia news agency reports that the prime minister has expressed his doubts regarding the charges brought against the Sudanese president. “No muslim could perpetrate a genocide,” he apparently stated.

For all their complaining, claims the Economist, European leaders are well aware of Turkey’s “strategic benefits as an energy hub, regional diplomatic power and bridge to the Muslim world...” With the rise of such potential superpowers as China and India, the EU will need as many allies as will agree to sign up to its ever-expanding “cause”. The recent passage of the Lisbon Treaty, with its creation of the new post of President of the EU, is proof of the organization’s ambitions. According to the Economist, the most prominent lobbyist for the position, Tony Blair, whose accomplishments won him many European admirers, was, however, ultimately seen as not European enough. His decision to support George Bush’s invasion of Iraq was especially frowned upon, and most notably by the French. It comes as little surprise that Belgian Prime Minister, Herman van Rompuy, with strong French support, was named EU president late last week.

Ambitious though it might be, the EU seems increasingly desperate. The Lisbon Treaty barely passed in time to avoid a possibly debilitating referendum on the subject, one the British Conservative party promised Britons if elected in May 2010. And a significant percentage of the British electorate remains wary of what the EU will do next to extend its powers.

As China continues to turn a blind eye to human rights abuses, investing in every corner of the African continent, Europe is sure to eventually sit up and notice. China already has a near-majority stake in the Sudanese oil industry. Still, while condemning Beijing’s African strategy, the European Union is just as likely to copy it.

President Obama’s recent trip to China revealed how rapidly the balance of power is shifting. Although the EU has its fair share of trade spats with China, it may find it more effective to focus on strengthening and building trade relationships elsewhere in the world. It could start by being less condemnatory of Turkey’s alliances with its Arab neighbours. Ironically, this approach could end with the EU lobbying the unjustifiably fortunate Omar al-Bashir. If Bashir has his way, scuppering South Sudan’s 2011 referendum, he may one day be standing shoulder-to-shoulder with giants.