The Richmond location of next year’s GOP nominating convention — and a complicated system of rules that gives greater weight to faithfully Republican areas — could hurt moderate Northern Virginia Rep. Tom Davis as he seeks the party’s nod to run for the Senate seat of the retiring John Warner.

Saturday’s decision in favor of a convention instead of a more expensive primary was already expected to hurt Davis’ chances because the conservative wing of the party is likely to attend in greater numbers.

The event’s Richmond venue, however, also falls within the geographic base of Davis’ likely opponent, conservative former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who will have an easier time organizing supporters to show up, said Fairfax County Republican Committee Chairman Jim Hyland.

“It makes it more difficult to get a lot of Northern Virginians down to Richmond, whereas Jim Gilmore, his base of support is in Henrico County,” Hyland said.

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And because the convention system offers additional delegates to areas that have more consistently voted for other GOP candidates, Davis’ base in politically ambiguous Northern Virginia could be less influential despite its population advantage.

“The seventh and the first and the third, which are really strong Gilmore districts, will get more delegates than the 11th,” Gilmore spokesman Dick Leggitt said.

Gilmore and Davis have not officially announced their candidacy for the Senate seat held by Warner; they both plan to make announcements after the state and local elections on Nov. 6. They would face Democrat Mark Warner, a popular former governor.

John Hishta, a senior Davis adviser, downplayed the convention choice as a negative for Davis.

“Conventions, like elections, are driven by the candidate,” he said. “Tom has gone through nominating conventions in the past and won them overwhelmingly.”

wflook@dcexaminer.com