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WASHINGTON (Map, News) - With a dozen games to play, one thing we know for certain about the 2007 Nationals is that they won’t lose 100 games. Oh, they’ll lose 90-plus, just as they did in 2006, but once they reached the 63 win level, the century mark for defeats was off the table.
The woeful expansion Washington Senators managed to lose 90 or more games in 8 of their 11 seasons. The worst of that bunch was the 1963 club that finished 56-106. Of more recent memory, the 1988 Orioles — who dropped their first 21 games of the season - finished at 54-107. As bad as those two clubs were, they both — along with every big league club that ever called RFK Stadium home — had at least one pitcher who featured double figure wins — or losses — for the season. The 2007 Nats may very well avoid that distinction, which, by itself, is worth mentioning.
Reliever Jon Rauch is the current wins leader with 8, and no one else on the club has more than 6 victories. Lefties Matt Chico and Mike Bacsik each have 8 defeats, and either could conceivably hit 10 in that department by month’s end, but maybe not. The Nats have employed 13 different starters this season — not an extraordinarily high number for a second division club - and 22 of the 25 pitchers they’ve used this year have recorded decisions.
Last March many observers predicted gloom and doom for this club; conventional wisdom dictated that pitching would be a glaring weakness. Six weeks into the season, four-fifths of their original starting rotation was injured, and the naysayers looked somewhat prescient. Yet, despite the appearance of 3 pitching staffs — one coming, one going and the one that was here — the club actually played better from that point on.
I’m not a big believer in pitcher’s won-lost records. To me, they reflect less on a pitcher’s skill on the mound, and more on his team’s ability - or inability - to score runs behind him. Things like ERA and baserunners per innings pitched are better indicators of pitching prowess than simply W’s and L’s. That said, however, Washington’s overall pitching performance, while not championship caliber, has been somewhat respectable. Out of 16 NL teams, they rank 9th in hits allowed, and 10th in team ERA. They’re last in strikeouts and have given up the 4th most walks, numbers you’d much rather see more in reverse, and have the most blown saves in the league. There’s a lot of room for improvement, to be sure, but the mix-and-match approach by Manny Acta and pitching coach Randy St. Claire has managed to keep the earlier “historically bad” predictions from coming to pass.
At some point in the future the Nationals will come up with annual team awards for best player, best pitcher, etc. Pretty much every other club does something similar. (Last year Kansas City named lefty Mark Redman and his 5.71 ERA their Pitcher of the Year. Hey, somebody had to win.) The Nats won’t be handing out any hardware this fall, but in the NL arms race, may have less of a hill to climb than you thought six months ago.
Hear Phil Wood Saturdays at 10 a.m. on SportsTalk 980 AM and weekly on Comcast SportsNet’s WPL through the World Series.
Comments from Examiner Readers
6:33 PM MST on Sun., Apr. 27, 2008 re: "‘The 21st Century Ripken’"
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2:00 PM MST on Tue., Apr. 22, 2008
re: "Don’t panic yet"
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10:34 AM MST on Tue., Apr. 22, 2008
re: "Don’t panic yet"
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10:18 AM MST on Tue., Apr. 22, 2008
re: "Don’t panic yet"
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12:59 PM MST on Thu., Dec. 13, 2007
re: "New park feels like home already"
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12:20 AM MST on Wed., Oct. 3, 2007
re: "Expect Bowden, Nats to make significant noise in the offseason"
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10:02 AM MST on Tue., Oct. 2, 2007
re: "Expect Bowden, Nats to make significant noise in the offseason"
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5:12 AM MST on Wed., Jul. 11, 2007
re: "Perhaps it’d be better to keep Young around"
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8:47 AM MST on Wed., Jun. 27, 2007
re: "Orioles could repeat managerial history with Trembley"
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5:52 PM MST on Wed., May. 30, 2007
re: "A long, winding road from Baltimore"
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1:07 PM MST on Wed., May. 2, 2007
re: "O's game gives umps a black eye"
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5:21 AM MST on Wed., May. 2, 2007
re: "A black eye for umps"
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Examiner Reader said:
There are many Nationals fans who are still patient with the team. I remember how Edward Bennett Williams as well as Peter Angelos tried---and failed---to build a winner with the Orioles by buying free agents. But my biggest nightmare is that once Zimmerman's contract runs out, he will sign a lucrative deal with another club because (a) the Lerners are unwilling to pay the money to keep him when they have the chance, (b) Zimmerman has no faith that the franchise will become a playoff contender anytime in his career, or (c) all of the above. Maybe the Lerners are smart by forcing Zimmerman to prove his worth this year, but if he has a breakout year and then flies the coop like Alfonso Soriano, fans' faith in The Plan will vanish like the wind. Edward J. Cunningham Rockville, MD
4 agree | 3 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
Gee, Phil, thanks. I'm glad you reminded us that we're all raving idiots and that you have been appointed by MENSA to set us straight. "It’s perfectly plain that the issue is offense." I'm glad we have an "expert" like you to tell us this. Hm. All along, I thought the problem was that Nationals Park doesn't have enough cupholders!!!
7 agree | 3 disagree
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Examiner reader said:
Phil, is it ok for fans who call in to your radio show to comment on the Nats' play? Or are they also ignorant folks who know nothing about facts or logic?
4 agree | 2 disagree
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Examiner reader said:
What an arrogant, condescending column this is. Fans shouldn't comment about and criticize the team because they don't know enough about baseball? Fans don't know what's going on in the dugout or in the clubhouse? Well why don't you tell us then, Phil, and disabuse us of our shallow, uninformed nonsense. And most fans agree that Lenny Harris did a terrific job last year? Really? Maybe it is you who is uninformed, Phil. (And anyway, who cares what the uninformed *fans* think?) Did you know that the Nats came very close in the offseason to not retaining Harris because they thought that he did not do a good job and was not ready to be a major league hitting coach?
9 agree | 2 disagree
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natsbaseball.com said:
Thanks Phil. Sounds wonderful - can't wait to see it. Being about the same age I remember attending the first baseball game at DC Stadium after experiencing Griffith for one or two seasons as a young child. It was a world of improvement over the falling down older park. After baseball returned 34 years later and about 15 years of going to Camden, RFK was, of course, kind of stark (I think is was designed by Joseph Stalin) but we all knew it was temporary and to have a home team again we would have put up with a lot worse. My only regret is the new stadium is in a location that couldn't be harder to get to for most of the area's fans. People are whining about the lack of parking - but it doesn't matter as there are no roads. Metro is bragging about being able to carry about 10,000 fans and hour. Since most of the 41,000 fans who could show up will have to go by metro - I cringe at the 4 hour trips it will take to get home. In that regard RFK had it all over the new park.
103 agree | 97 disagree
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kjack said:
Another great article Phil. Why those idiots at espn[The world wide leader in crap]and fox don't hire informed,aware, and intelligent individuals like you. To inform the general public of the things that really matter in baseball. I'll personalll never understand.
190 agree | 214 disagree
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EdDC said:
Phil, What do you think of going after Coco Crisp? He is still young and had back to back .300 seasons not long ago in Cleveland. Nats need a CF. Crisp didn't do much in BoSox pressure cooker, like Wily Mo Pena. So Crisp might benefit from just relaxing, knowing the world is not on his shoulders. His contract is reasonable: Covelli Crisp of 3 years/$15.5M (2007-09), plus $8M 2010 club option As to Bowden, I like him asking for the world. He tries hard and contacts many many teams, and if one or two bite, then Nats come out ahead. This is better than just trading to make trades.
244 agree | 227 disagree
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Pope John Paul Ringo George said:
"Did you ever hear any specific player’s names that would’ve ended up here in exchange for the Fonz?" This is a poor argument. The reason the Nats never get serious offers in trade for Soriano, Dmitri, Cordero, Rauch, etc is becuase Bowden's asking price is not serious. He makes it known that you can only trade for a Nat if you're willing to be ripped off in the trade. His asking price starts so high, teams won't even attempt to negotiate with him. Then he comes back and says "hey, we never got any serious offers!" No sane, competent GM will ever trade with him on anyting above replacement level players.
278 agree | 230 disagree
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Norm said:
Trembley has got this team behind him. I like his vision. You can see it in the way this team is playing since he replaced Perlozzo. The Weaver like experience you cite nails it and is a huge bonus. It's precisely what the O's need to get to the next level. The way I see it, NONE of the other current candidates brings anything comparable to the table. With McPhail and Trembley, we are already on the right track.
303 agree | 799 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
I agree in that the Orioles should trade for Teixeira. There will be many teams after him. The "Dallas News" has an article that Boston, Dodgers, and Tigers may be interested. We should offer Cabrera, and two other players. Texas needs a starting pitcher. In the article he says the other teams would offer a pitching prospect. At least Cabrera has pitched in the majors the last three years. The Orioles would be set for the next 8 years at first base. That would be a nice infield. Also, go get Torri Hunter next year in free agency for center field.
350 agree | 262 disagree
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Dan said:
So is MLB saying that the score of a game has no impact on strategy? As far as Jay's comment: "The rules were followed." I don't think I ever read anywhere in the MLB rule book where you can score a run while you are on defense. The apeal was not that the run should not count, but that it is not fair to the Tribe that the run was awarded 3 innings after the fact. Contrary to MLB I beleive that the score of the game is the #1 item that determines strategy. The Tribe was denied 3 innings of basing their strategy on the current situation. my thought is that the game should be continued from the point where the controversial run scored, with Baltimore leading 3 to 1. In every other instance I can recall you must apeal a decision before the next pitch. Runner leaves too early when tagging up. Appeal has to be made before next pitch. G Brett's infamouse non home run? Had to be apealed before next pitch. Same for runner missing a base. O's did not raise issue for 3 inn, but thats O
298 agree | 286 disagree
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Jay said:
The run counted, why are you crying? The rules were followed, and the Indians are tryng to get by on a technicality, shame in them...very unsportsmanlike
387 agree | 300 disagree
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