The White House released data last week indicating that the federal deficit for the 2007 fiscal year, which will end on Sept. 30, will be $205 billion rather than the $244 billion that the White House predicted back in February.

A $39 billion mistake in estimating the deficit isn’t as big as it might seem — the variation equals only a little more than 1 percent of total federal spending for the year. But the estimating error does provide some perspective on the looming battle over the 2008 appropriation bills.

The Congress maintains that an additional $20 billion is crucial to maintain federal efforts in a variety of areas during the 2008 fiscal year. The White House is threatening to veto because the additional $20 billion will add about $10 billion to the 2008 deficit. (Only about half of the appropriated funds will actually flow out of the Treasury in the first year.) That means the veto standoff that the White House is threatening is over an amount equal to about one-quarter of the estimated error the White House recently conceded making in projecting the fiscal 2007 deficit.

The president argues that the additional funding proposed by Congress is unneeded because his budget already contains a $60 billion increase in discretionary spending. The problem with the president’s argument, however, is that all of that increase goes to just four of the 12 appropriation bills — the four bills that fund defense, veterans affairs, foreign affairs, and homeland security. The entire domestic side of government is frozen, which means — when you consider the effects of inflation, the growth of the economy, and population — that they are facing substantial cuts. There are some programs that many Americans would agree should be cut, but any responsible citizen should carefully examine where Congress is intending to add money before deciding whether to support President Bush or the Congress.

In some instances, sticking with the president’s recommendation will in my opinion force cutbacks that most Americans would view as painful and unnecessary. The effects in other instances will be more than painful — they will force policies that a very large majority of citizens would find mindless and even absurd.