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U.Va.’s Center for Politics director discusses election
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WASHINGTON (Map, News) - Who will be a greater force in the Va. Senate race, urban or rural voters?
Everyone’s vote matters equally; we don’t have an Electoral College at the state level. But all rural voters together now equal about 22 percent of the state total. So central city votes (16 percent) and suburban votes (62 percent) dominate — and the suburbs above all. Rural voters are heavily Republican (except blacks), central city voters heavily Democratic, and suburban voters very mixed, with Northern Virginia suburbs by far the most Democratic.
What will be the impact of the women’s vote?
Since women will likely constitute 53 percent of the total vote, women can determine the winner if they break heavily for one candidate. So far polls don’t show them doing that, but polls aren’t the election.
What will be the impact of the minority vote?
Black voters will vote Democratic by about 90 percent to 10 percent Republican. The real question is the turnout. Will black voters comprise, say, 17 percent of the total electorate, or 12 percent? Recent state elections provide mixed evidence. Other minorities are important mainly in Northern Virginia, but the polling data on them are not sufficient to draw reliable conclusions about this Senate contest.
How will the Republican backlash due to the discontent with Bush and the war in Iraq effect gubernatorial races around the country?
Democrats are going to do very well in gubernatorial elections around the country. I believe they will go from their current 22 statehouses to at least 28 statehouses, including the influential states of Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, Colorado and Arkansas. Ohio and Colorado will prove especially important for Democrats in the 2008 presidential contest, assuming Democrats nominate a moderate, electable candidate. Now, that could be a big assumption.
Do you see similarities between Mayor Doug Wilder’s gubernatorial run in 1989 and the current race in Massachusetts between Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey and Democratic candidate Deval Patrick?
Deval Patrick will win handily, thereby becoming the second elected black governor in American history. But with all due respect, Patrick has had it easy compared to Doug Wilder. Getting elected in liberal Massachusetts as a black candidate is a great deal different than winning in conservative Virginia, once the capital of the old Confederacy. And Wilder did it first, and that’s always tougher. – Christy Goodman
Part of the Washington DC Examiner's 2006 election coverage.
