Md. senate race affected by Dem lead in governor’s race

Annapolis (Map, News) - New evidence that Martin O’Malley is chugging further ahead of Robert Ehrlich in the Maryland gubernatorial race could have a real impact on the senate race in that state, political insiders said Friday.

That O’Malley is gaining support lends credence to the notion that the Democrats are building a base that could likely transfer over to Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin excelling at the polls, according to Peter Shapiro, a University of Maryland political science professor.

And when Ehrlich’s numbers suffer — as a Thursday Zogby poll showed — so do those of his lieutenant governor Michael Steele, he added.

“People link — and appropriately so — Ehrlich with Steele, and the Democrats have worked hard to link the two of them with the president,” Shapiro noted. “This is as much a referendum on George Bush as anything.”

Steele’s strategy, in turn, has been to try to distance himself with the traditional Republican line and be seen as an independent thinker.

To an extent, Shapiro said, he is an independent thinker, yet also rather conservative on a number of social issues. How Democrats perceive the lieutenant governor and who turns out at the polls will make the difference while at the same time are hard to gauge, he explained.

“The short of it is that if Democrats vote for Democrats, Cardin will surely win,” Shapiro said. “But turnout will be a big key.”

In the last week,ww O’Malley and Ehrlich’s TV commercials have taken on a notably edgier, more confrontational tone. But for some time that’s been precisely the tone of Cardin’s and Steele’s ad wars, alluding to the competitive nature of the race, according to Shapiro.

The last Zogby poll concerning the Maryland Senate campaign from earlier this week has the Democratic representative ahead of the Republican lieutenant governor by about 8 percentage points.

As of the last campaign financial filings, Steele’s raised nearly $6.5 million, with about $2.1 million in cash on hand while his opponent has raised about $6.8 million, with $1.6 million in cash on hand.

Going into one of the final weekends before Nov. 7, both candidates have jam-packed schedules. Cardin is set to make appearances at a pro-choice fundraiser, gay rights dinner and — as Steele is — several religious communities.

dlevitz@dcexaminer.com

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