In the center of Treasure Island, a former public elementary school stands boarded up and covered in graffiti, waiting for children to return.

When the school closed two and a half years ago, it had just 88 students, despite a capacity of 676. Now that the potential for 3,000 to 6,000 new residential units — and more than 1,800 school-age children — looms on the horizon, San Francisco Unified School District leaders are weighing whether to reopen the old school or open a new one elsewhere on the island.

Although redevelopment on the former naval base could be years away, education leaders say it makes sense to start planning — and raising money — now.

“Let's say we want to build a new school,” said Board of Education member Hydra Mendoza. “We'd want to talk now about where we'd get the money, should it be a K-5, K-8 or a high school.”

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Treasure Island, along with Mission Bay and The City's southeast corner, are all poised for extensive development and the potential need for new or expanded schools, said SFUSD Facilities Director David Goldin. Although no one's put a price tag on a Treasure Island school, building a new school at Mission Bay could cost $30 million to $40 million, he said.

New housing could attract up to 6,000 new residents — which would tripling the population on Treasure Island — and more than 1,800 are expected to be kids between 5 and 18, according to a study by the Concord Group, a San Francisco-based real estate consultancy.

However, given how few students attended Treasure Island Elementary before it closed, experts are still calculating how many of those new residents might attend public school on the island or elsewhere, said Jack Sylvan, director of the Treasure Island Development Authority.

Yolanda Esquivel, whose grandchildren live on the island but commute every day to Edison Charter Academy on 22nd Street in the Mission district, said she doesn't know whether they'd stay on the island if a new school opened.

“We would need to see what kind of classes and activities they had,” she said. “It was a beautiful school, but now it's destroyed.”

Many young Treasure Island residents have told Mark Connors, co-founder of Treasure Island Good Neighbors, that they're glad to go into The City for school.

“There's been problems with bullying, so some are glad to get away from other kids on the island,” Connors said.

bwinegarner@sfexaminer.com

By the numbers

3,000: Population of Treasure Island

3,000-6,000: New residences planned

9,000: Estimated future population

1,820: Estimated children ages 5-18 expected to move into new housing

88: Students enrolled in Treasure Island Elementary before it closed in 2005

676: Treasure Island Elementary’s capacity

Sources: Treasure Island Development Authority, Concord Group, SFUSD