More than 86 percent of Americans could be overweight or obese by 2030, researchers found.

If current trends continue, heavy Americans will get heavier and be at greater risk for health conditions such as hypertension, diabetes and heart disease, according to researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine.

Researchers conducted projection analysis based on data from the past three decades. The results are published in the July 2008 online issue of Obesity.

More than 66 percent of adults ages 20 and older are overweight or obese, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Seventeen percent of people ages 12 to 19 and 19 percent of children ages 6 to 11 are overweight.

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By 2048, all American adults would become overweight or obese, researchers found. Black women will reach that state by 2034, and the prevalence of overweight children will nearly double by 2030.

“Our analysis also shows that over time heavy Americans become heavier,” May Beydoun, a former Bloomberg research fellow, said in a statement.

Adults with a body mass index between 25 and 29.9 are considered overweight, and those with a BMI of 30 or higher are considered obese.

BMI, which is calculated using weight and height, is a “pretty good indicator” of whether a person is overweight or obese, said Dr. Jonathan Rich, an internist at Mercy Medical Center.

It becomes less accurate for high-performance athletes, who may have a higher BMI because muscle weighs more than fat.

smichael@baltimoreexaminer.com