CHANGE MY LOCATION
Sports
Examiners
Sports Examiner
Most Recent Post
Radio hosts get blast back from Magic Johnson after accusations of faking AIDS
California News
Multimedia News
Steinmetz: Playoffs still in reach despite losing Davis
SEE THE LATEST ON THIS STORY
Related Topics: SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO (Map, News) - When people are asked what they’d like to hear first, the good news or the bad news, most tend to request the bad news up front.
So here goes.
It seems obvious the Warriors are going to take a step back in 2008-09. Without point guard Baron Davis, the team’s inspirational leader and internal motor, it is wholly unrealistic to think the Warriors are going to be able to match last season’s 48-win mark.
Here’s the good news: They still have a shot to make the playoffs.
Despite all the hemming and hawing about how brutal the Western Conference is and about how you’re going to need 50 wins to make it into the postseason, the fact of the matter is those sentiments aren’t based in reality.
Just because you needed 50 wins to make the Western Conference playoffs last season doesn’t mean you’re going to need 50 wins to make it next year. Yes, it took Denver winning 50 games last season to earn the eighth and final playoff spot ahead of the Warriors.
But that was an anomaly.
First of all, the Eastern Conference is getting better. It was better last season than it was two seasons before and it will be better this upcoming year than last. The top teams — Boston, Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando and Philadelphia — aren’t bad at all. The middle-of-the-pack teams are OK.
And the worst teams in the East aren’t any worse than the worst teams in the West.
Put it this way: The days of rolling up a 23-7 record against the East are over.
As far as the Western Conference is concerned, while it still may be better than the East, the reality is that the bottom feeders in the West were horrible.
Memphis, Seattle, Minnesota and the Los Angeles Clippers each won fewer than 23 games a season ago. Any self-respecting Western Conference team should have gone 12-4 against that foursome.
The Nuggets went 14-2 against those four teams. You think that had a little something to do with them getting to 50 wins? The Clippers and Timberwolves are likely to be better. Memphis can’t get much worse.
The points are these: The bad teams in the West are going to be better; the quality in the East has been upgraded and there remains a certain amount of parity among the top 10 or so teams in the West, which should prevent extremes in records from the best to the worst.
What that all adds up to is a back-to-normal season for the NBA. It’s not going to take 50 wins next year to make the postseason — 45 will likely do it.
And the Warriors might just be good enough to win 45 games.
Matt Steinmetz is the NBA insider for Warriors telecasts on Comcast SportsNet Bay Area.
Comments from Examiner Readers
10:47 PM MST on Tue., Sep. 30, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ nucleus not among best in West"
Report as inappropriate
2:55 PM MST on Thu., Aug. 14, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ offseason filled with hits, misses"
Report as inappropriate
10:32 AM MST on Wed., Aug. 13, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ nucleus not among best in West"
Report as inappropriate
11:09 AM MST on Tue., Aug. 12, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ nucleus not among best in West"
Report as inappropriate
8:55 AM MST on Fri., Aug. 1, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ nucleus not among best in West"
Report as inappropriate
5:32 PM MST on Thu., Jul. 31, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ nucleus not among best in West"
Report as inappropriate
5:27 PM MST on Thu., Jul. 31, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ nucleus not among best in West"
Report as inappropriate
1:50 PM MST on Wed., Jul. 30, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ nucleus not among best in West"
Report as inappropriate
10:35 AM MST on Wed., Jul. 30, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ nucleus not among best in West"
Report as inappropriate
6:43 AM MST on Wed., Jul. 30, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Warriors’ nucleus not among best in West"
Report as inappropriate
6:54 PM MST on Thu., Jul. 24, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Playoffs still in reach despite losing Davis"
Report as inappropriate
9:40 AM MST on Sun., Jul. 20, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: The good, bad and ugly of the NBA offseason"
Report as inappropriate
5:15 PM MST on Mon., Jul. 7, 2008
re: "Walcoff: Warriors wise to let Baron fly south"
Report as inappropriate
1:14 PM MST on Sat., Jul. 5, 2008
re: "Walcoff: Warriors wise to let Baron fly south"
Report as inappropriate
3:56 PM MST on Thu., Jul. 3, 2008
re: "Walcoff: Warriors wise to let Baron fly south"
Report as inappropriate
11:17 AM MST on Mon., Jun. 30, 2008
re: "‘One-and-dones’ hurting the game"
Report as inappropriate
6:25 AM MST on Fri., Jun. 27, 2008
re: "Donte hoping to see NBA Greene"
Report as inappropriate
9:45 AM MST on Wed., Apr. 30, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Lucky Jazz, sorry Mavs"
Report as inappropriate
8:01 AM MST on Wed., Apr. 30, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: West's dominance won't last"
Report as inappropriate
7:15 AM MST on Wed., Apr. 30, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: West's dominance won't last"
Report as inappropriate
2:43 PM MST on Thu., Apr. 24, 2008
re: "Warriors’ worriers missing the point"
Report as inappropriate
11:18 AM MST on Thu., Mar. 27, 2008
re: "Warriors’ worriers missing the point"
Report as inappropriate
3:17 PM MST on Wed., Mar. 19, 2008
re: "Warriors’ worriers missing the point"
Report as inappropriate
11:31 PM MST on Mon., Mar. 10, 2008
re: "Frantz: Mullin, Warriors leave well enough alone"
Report as inappropriate
9:02 AM MST on Mon., Mar. 10, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Anatomy of a turnaround"
Report as inappropriate
9:41 PM MST on Tue., Feb. 26, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Who’s for real in crowded West?"
Report as inappropriate
1:30 PM MST on Wed., Feb. 20, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Who’s for real in crowded West?"
Report as inappropriate
1:26 PM MST on Wed., Feb. 20, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Who’s for real in crowded West?"
Report as inappropriate
5:36 PM MST on Mon., Feb. 18, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Anti-All-Stars"
Report as inappropriate
4:03 PM MST on Mon., Feb. 18, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Anti-All-Stars"
Report as inappropriate
4:00 PM MST on Mon., Feb. 18, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Anti-All-Stars"
Report as inappropriate
3:51 PM MST on Mon., Feb. 18, 2008
re: "Steinmetz: Anti-All-Stars"
Report as inappropriate
Iwi said:
Kings will be a good team
1 agree | 1 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
I think that this is a fair summation of the warrior off-season moves. They appear to be one more "star" type player short of the playoffs, and that is assuming Ellis, Biedrins, and Randolph all develop as projected. Hope you are right about Williams at point, because we are asking a lot from Ellis there.
5 agree | 6 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
You neglected to mention Morrow, the free agent who tore up summer league for the Warriors. He was one of the best looking players in the summer league according to those in the know.
7 agree | 6 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
To the guy who wonders why Kosta Perovic didn't play much last year. Kosta was just terrible, he made Zarko look like an All Star.
8 agree | 7 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
Do you talk just to hear yourself talk? this is the dumbest peice of no thought crap that you have ever writin and if the refs called games fairly Kobe and company would'nt even have been in the playoffs and thats why Kobe gets more calls than 411
8 agree | 9 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
Continuing my post: Warrior's are not unproven in scoring department. We are in D. We can't guard PG, PF and C's. The way we solve this? Our depth. We have Buike guard the PGs, Jackson on the SF's, Monta on SG. and have Turiaf and Beidrins clog the middle. Even though they don't take up much space they can try slow them long enough for some help D. Look for the Warriors to have a kind of flowing zone this season. Lots of help D and a whole lot of agressiveness and pressure on the ball.
8 agree | 8 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
Well first off, since Artest is going to the Rockets (presumably), you can shift the Suns down a spot and let Houston rise. As for Utah and the Spurs, NOH is way better than them. Yes NO lost to the Spurs in the playoffs, but now the Spurs are one year older and have not made any significant changes and NO has a playoff berth under the belt, another year of experience and James Posey to boot. Now for the Warriors. I believe that they deserve that 8th spot, if not the 7th. For right now I will just look at the core/starting 5 and not consider depth, overall play, and injury/age. Portland: Oden, Roy, Aldridge. Baylees? Outlaw? Mavs: Kidd, Terry, Howard, Dirk, Diop. Warriors: Monta, Jackson, Maggette, Harrington, Beidrins. Greg Oden is highly unproven and still has to fully recover. The others are well rounded and can put up serious numbers, but they do not have a good PG. Mavs have a chance but they need more heart. Warriors can score in bunches, but need D. I need letters.
7 agree | 8 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
I agree with matt...to an extent. the key to the dubs success isn't all on the core (as it is with many other teams). This team is DEEP. They can eclipse many teams in the west with contributions from other players that aren't core. Not many other teams can make that claim. Well done Mully. Now go get Josh Smith!!!
8 agree | 8 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
Wright and Randolph are the secrets to the Warriors future. Harrington, Jackson, Magette, Azu offer real fire power, in addition to Biedrins and Ellis. Warriors are one of the best balanced teams in the West in my opinion IF Nelson makes Wright and Randolph go to guys; i.e. if GSW play less run and gun, and more run and bring ball inisde, play more pwoer game, and play defense.
8 agree | 8 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Paul Huff said:
Hey Genius. Dallas has a nucleus of DIrk, Howard and Jason KIDD...but go ahead and throw Terry in there for a foursome. And putting the Mavs under such an unknown in Portland? Thats why you're a beat writer and not a true analyst. I look forward to watching the Mavs rraape the Warriors this year.
8 agree | 8 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
Matt-- If the Warrior's competition won't win as many games because many teams have improved, doesn't that make it together for the Warrior's to get as many wins also?
7 agree | 9 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
Matt, the Warriors could be a lot better this year. They have some young players that are due to have breakout years, like Beleneli, Wright, and this new kid Randolph. Last season I though the Warriors gave too many minutes to players like Barnes, Croshere, and even Kelena Abuzuke, who played just fair. The Warriors future is these young guys. While the loss of Baron hurts, the team will be awfully potent next season offensively. With Monta, Magette, Jackson, and hopefully Beleneli they will be shooting the lights out this season. The Warriors will be a better rebounding team too. You seem to have little confidence these young players will step up. Basketball belongs to the young guys coming up, not aging veterans.
11 agree | 10 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
My only problem is, if he planned to go he could have allowed GS to use the trade clause giving the team a chance to use it.
11 agree | 11 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
Rich Walcoff: Warriors wise to let Baron fly south You hit the nail right on the head, Richie, in every way. Kudos.
10 agree | 10 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
i can see why you dont write for the chroicle
12 agree | 12 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
noah said:
So, we're going to require all basketball playing college freshmen to sign a contract promising to stay in college for two years? It seems very unlikely that such a contract provision would be enforceable, at least absent collective bargaining.
12 agree | 12 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
"It was tough for me growing up in the streets"..... Yeh, I'd like to hear that on tape. Never, ever, ever believe what you read without a sense of humor and pity for the angle the reporters are going for. The boy is educated, polite, and has always been far from the streets... Except, apparently, for the day this interview happened.... Good lord....
12 agree | 14 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
So a week ago you state "Do you still think the Rockets are better without Yao Ming?" Yet in todays trash from you you state they go backwards when he comes back. Please tell me you don't get paid for this
18 agree | 17 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
so are all comments that disagree with the article deleted? Doesnt matter, you lost all your credibility when you said Josh Howard was the best player on the mavs. I'm still rolling on the floor over that one.
19 agree | 16 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
What you are forgetting is the play of Houston's rookies down the stretch. Add Yao into that mix with Scola and Landry with a year under their belt. Houston is a contender - I cannot see how you say a team will go backwards when you get the most dominant inside presence back in the line-up.
19 agree | 16 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Yinka Dare said:
Actually, Matt, David West played all of 111 minutes in a first-round playoff loss in '04. He is a stranger to the playoffs. Does experience count when you have only experienced losing? Why hate on the Toronto/Orlando series starring two of the league's best young bigs, instead of, say, the Hawks/Celts or Pistons/Sixers?
20 agree | 19 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
"True, the Warriors have yet to lock up a playoff berth, but that is something that is outside of their control." Outside of their control? Isn't it completely in their control? Steinmetz is unbelievable.
21 agree | 19 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
nellie needs to give his bench more playing time and believe in them more. he doesnt have to ride his starters for 40 minutes when the bench is very capable. Lastly, why didnt he leave the same lineup in that got them back within 6 points of the kings?? It was an off night for Jackson and Davis. A comeback was killed off and much need rest for your starters was lost.
23 agree | 24 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Steve in Concord said:
Perovic just recalled from D-league after avg. 18 rebounds and 35 minutes in two games. Significant?
22 agree | 20 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay warriors will win it all this year
23 agree | 22 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Examiner Reader said:
Hi, Could you please ask Don Nelson why he isn't playing Kosta Perovic?? It's really puzzling. When Kosta came into the game in Milwaukee, he dominated Andrew Bogut. Kosta looks a lot more agile than he's been given credit for and he sure can cover a lot of ground. When the Milwaukee guards were driving towards the basket they thought twice when they saw Kosta's huge presence in the lane and instead kicked it out to Bogut who Perovic got to with 2 large ground covering steps, just enough to disturb Bogut's release point so he missed. Plus, Perovic has professional experience, so he knows what it's like to go up against older guys. Kosta also looks stronger than Brandon and Patrick. I just wish he'd reward Kosta for his impressive defense against Milwaukee. Thank you!
48 agree | 56 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
timgreen79 said:
I know we shouldn't sleep on the Spurs but I think they'll probably have too tough of a road if their record doesn't get better. As a 5 seed they'd play (in current standings): 1st - Utah on road, 2nd - Hornets on Road, 3rd - Lakers or Suns on road. Wow. They have experience on their side but will miss the athleticism and depth that the Suns and Lakers have. (That is if they could even get by Utah)
59 agree | 49 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Bob said:
Good point that we need to wait 20-25 games to evaluate Shaq. Personally I think Phoenix is going to drop in terms of overall record (because their SOS gets tougher), but then will come on in the playoffs. Which really is the only point of the Shaq experiment.
62 agree | 56 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Matt (SF) said:
I just posted a comment a few hours ago that was removed. Am I being censored? All I said was that the inclusion of Turkoglu and Noah in this article makes no sense. Steinmetz doesn't know what he's talking about - Hedo's having a great year and Noah has been above average. So why put them on your hate list, Matt? Please censor this comment again. I'm watching.
62 agree | 56 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
J Barnett said:
I know Matt can't write but he was a quality baller for F&M College. And he's quite handsome in person.
64 agree | 59 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Ben R said:
I've already come up with the best solution to problem that is Matt Steinmetz, don't read the column. Go Lakers.
66 agree | 63 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree
Caleb B said:
How can you have an anti-NBA player list without including the likes of Stephan Marbury? I can't figure out the pattern in your list but Francis should be given a pass - he's injured and playing for cheap. And Hinrich? He's on team USA. Lot's of former and current knicks made your Top 15. About the only thing I agree with.
73 agree | 78 disagree
Vote on this comment: I agree or I disagree