Iraq’s fundamental problem remains the lack of a broad political agreement on the constitutional shape of the country.

We are now nearly two years past the date when the Iraqi constitution was to have been amended to resolve such key issues as control and distribution of the oil revenue, the federal structure of the country, and the structure of executive power at the center.

Iraq cannot progress toward stability until all the major parties agree on the core constitutional question: how will wealth and power be shared? …

The Bush administration’s military surge, with its many tactical alliances and adjustments, has created a new chance to stabilize Iraq at the level where it most counts: politically.

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That is all the surge could ever do.

But it remains to be seen whether the administration (and then the Iraqis themselves) will seize the opportunity.

If not, the next American president is likely to take office as Iraq slips back into a much deeper crisis, leaving the United States with a much more dreadful set of choices.

Read more at hoover.org