The success of public schools in Maryland and Virginia could be threatened in coming years as demographic shifts send shock waves throughout the same districts that are currently outperforming much of the nation, according to a new report released by Atlanta-based Southern Regional Education Board.

By 2021, when this fall’s incoming kindergartners will be celebrating their high school graduations, the makeup of the states’ school-age populations will have changed dramatically the report says, with far larger percentages of students likely from families with less college and English-language experience.

“Maryland and Virginia are ahead of the game a bit with many achievement indicators,” said spokesman Alan Richard, whose board works to coordinate and bolster pre-kindergarten through college education for its 16 member states. But “these states will continue to see enrollment growth that will have budget ramifications.”

In Maryland, home to nearly 900,000 students, the percentage of Hispanic students is projected to be swell from 7 percent in 2009 to 20 percent in 2021. Both black and white students will decline proportionally, the report says, while students labeled “other” will grow from 6 percent to 11 percent. In Virginia, where almost 1.3 million students attend school, the percentage of Hispanic students is expected to grow from 6 percent in 2009 to 18 percent in 2021, while “other” ethnicities are projected to increase from 7 percent to 12 percent.

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Overall enrollment is expected to rise by 6 percent in Maryland, on par with its growth over the past 10 years, and by 11 percent in Virginia, one point less than its recent rate.

In Fairfax County, as in much of the region, the changes — and the planning to accommodate them — have been under way for several years, said school board member Jane Strauss.

“We are the world here in Fairfax County, and we’re proud of that. We like that,” Strauss said, adding that the district has invested heavily in teacher technology that will allow for more accurate tracking of individual students and their progress, whether ahead of the curve or still learning English.

Each state’s 50-page report also highlighted troubling rates for college graduation. In Maryland, only 60 percent of college freshmen at public four-year schools graduated within six years. In Virginia, the number improved slightly to 67 percent.

“For the first time in our society, we need most Americans to have some level of education beyond high school,” Richard said. “States need to better define for teachers what [high school graduates] are supposed to know.”

lfabel@dcexaminer.com