Prince William County officials must trim almost $19 million from County Executive Craig Gerhart’s proposed budget to meet a new shortfall announced Tuesday, even if they approve a 27 percent tax rate increase.

New projections show the county will raise millions of dollars less than anticipated from several sources, including investment income, property taxes on new homes, and sales and business taxes, finance director Chris Martino said.

Among the problems, county estimates grossly underestimated the effect of the housing market’s woes on new construction, projecting the average new home to be worth $123,000 more than it turned out to be.

Gerhart and public school Superintendent Steven Walts are scouring their budgets for new cuts, which may jeopardize plans to increase the public safety staff and give teachers a 6 percent pay increase.

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“There are quite a few things in the works” to address the problems, Martino said, as officials prepare to recommend fixes at an already scheduled budget session next week.

The school budget would lose $10.6 million, and the county budget would lose $8.1 million.

Supervisors are considering a tax rate of $1 per $100 of assessed value, up from 78.7 cents per $100 last year. Because home values have fallen 15 percent countywide, the average homeowner’s tax bill would increase about 8.25 percent.

County Chairman Corey Stewart said supervisors can cut more spending to relieve homeowners.

“It’s going to make it more difficult, but it’s got to be done,” Stewart said.

At least a dozen county residents asked supervisors to avoid budget cuts already under consideration at a public hearing Monday and about 100 firefighters and their supporters asked for full funding of the department’s bid for 52 new positions.

But others said the tax burden is growing to untenable levels and urged supervisors to trim spending, including resident John Dawson, who said the county needs to forgo “champagne budgets” in “beer years.”

dgenz@dcexaminer.com