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In the last five games of the season Monta Ellis and the Warriors have a slightly easier strength of schedule than the Mavericks and Nuggets.
SAN FRANCISCO (Map, News) - A week into April, and the Warriors’ most critical body of basketball work this season is yet to come. With all the games they’ve already won, who would have thought it would come down to this?
By Sunday, the three-way battle for the Western Conference’s final two playoff berths will hang in a balance that will be swayed by the Warriors, Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets.
Any way you look at it, this race figures to be a photo finish. And, on paper at least, things stack up about as well as they can for the Warriors to be right there at the wire.
Going into Friday’s action, the Mavericks had a one-game lead over the Nuggets and a two-game lead over the Warriors.
Big advantage, Mavs. Slight advantage, Nuggets.
However, on the home-away meter, the Warriors play four of their final five games at home — including Thursday’s showdown with the Nuggets at Oracle Arena. The Mavericks face three home games and two road games, the Nuggets two home games and three road games.
Advantage, Warriors.
In the degree-of-difficulty department, the Nuggets have it the toughest. The opponents in their last five games boast a combined 188-189 record, and they will face two 50-win teams — Utah and Houston — in addition to that game with the Warriors.
The Mavs’ last five opponents check in with a combined record of 174-202, including two games against 50-win teams — Utah and New Orleans.
The Warriors’ last five opponents hold a combined 171-205 record, and the only 50-win team remaining is Phoenix.
Another slight advantage to the Warriors.
The obvious point? The Warriors have to win Thursday’s game against the Nuggets. Have to. Can’t see how they can spot the Nuggets another game advantage.
If the Warriors emerge from this weekend in the same shape they went into Friday’s action, they really ought to pull out one of the two playoff berths.
Somehow, with all the drama this season has contained up to this point, it figures the climax to it all should be one for the history books. Let the nail biting begin.
Random thought:
» Could this season have started any worse for Giants fans?
The first time the Giants try playing small ball, Dave Roberts is thrown out trying to steal. The first time Barry Zito pitches an inning, he gets shelled. The first time Matt Cain pitches great, he gets no run support, and the bullpen loses the game.
This is a team that looks like it can’t hit, can’t pitch and can’t field, and it looks as if the Giants will test the baseball axiom that “every team wins 60 and loses 60. It’s the other 42 games that decide a season.” The Giants may not win 60 games.
Tim Liotta is a freelance journalist and regular contributor to The Examiner.
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12:39 AM MST on Mon., Jul. 14, 2008 re: "Liotta: Warriors took shot too early"
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Examiner Reader said:
oh good thing there is so many Kevin Garnets to choose from.
2 agree | 2 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
How about we start telling you writers & sportscasters how to do your jobs. Just report about the team & its decisions not what you think is right. You guys seem to think you are more important than the game, which by the way sucks as much as you do.
3 agree | 2 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
Baron Davis was an above average point guard, but he was no hall-of-famer. I saw him play last season agaisnt Iverson and Iverson was so much better than BD it wasn't even funny. Same with Deron Williams, and Chris Paul. I think GS can get over the loss of BD. If they don't add another point guard they will have a drop-off at this position, but they have ungraded in other areas. Right now they three very potent offensive weapons is Magette, Ellis, and Jackson. The name of the game is puting the ball in the hoop. They also will be a better rebounding team, and they have some very good young players who are going to step it up. I can't wait for the season to start.
5 agree | 2 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
Matt-I thought that you were the one W announcer to come close to calling it as you see it. Apparently not. I can write for days on why I can't stand Nellie ... I don't have any problems with stating BW's limitations - he had many. He did bring athletism, rebnding, and a shot blocking threat when he was in there - something that most people value and W's lacked. My biggest problem with BW not playing was with who was playing instead. Matt Barnes is an absolutely horrible bb player who rightfully has no spot on an NBA team. The fact that he took away minutes from BW, Crosh,& Al is appalling ... yet no word from BA media. He's a horrible def player who is never in corrct position and is not physical ... only dirty. Let's remember T Hill. He was in Nellie's doghouse who couldn't get consistent minutes but later became an allstar. Who beat him out at PF?-V Askew. This guy always makes sure he first has an excuse of not winning ... can't handle high expectations.
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Examiner Reader said:
The reason Nelson didn't play Wright and Bellini is, I think, linked to his salary bonus. I'm guessing he would have got a fat bonus for geting the Warriors into the playoffs, and he didn't want to risk it. At this stage of his life Nelson is coaching for money, and I think this influenced his playing rotation last season. Nelson was fixated on geting into the playoffs, even though the Warrriors would have had trouble geting past the first round. Nelson is in the waning days of his career, so he's making short term decisions, he doesn't care about the future. That's why the Warriors would be better off without Nelson.
4 agree | 13 disagree
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jason said:
um, it's obvious. think of which high school players made immediate impacts vs which took some time before becoming who they eventually became. yup, the loosely termed "NBA body". There probably are exceptions, but likely to be guards if anything. One look at the 1st Hawks game tells you all you need to know. As w/ nearly all young players (who need experience to make defensive reads & rotations second nature), Wright is not a good help defender yet, but he has plenty of flashes. And he's also decent when the offensive player faces him up. The problem is the low block. Once Josh Smith stopped trying to drive by him & posted up, he absolutely abused Wright. Also check out the 2nd Sixers game & you'll notice how easily Reggie Evans boxes out Wright. Wright started out at 200 lbs & could only bench 185 lbs twice. On your standard 45 lb bar, that's just one 45 lb weight & one 25 lb weight on each side. Hell, he needed 10 lbs & 10 more reps just to match Thad Young.
3 agree | 3 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
if they let ellis get away i leave to. i will become a laker fan
3 agree | 7 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
For a guy that watches the Warriors close up, you're really bad at evaluating talent. Take a look at his highlight reel from last year. Are you in for every single thing Nellie has done? Did you even watch the Finals? Defense wins. Nellie doesnt care about defense. Other things Nellie has done: allow horrible shot selection, no defense, Pietrus can step out of bounds, Webber will provide us veteran leadership and not mess with AB, Mbenga will provide us interior presence, playing Pat Burke heavy minutes in Summer league will be good, POB sucks, Belli is going to start, bench baron the last game of the season when they been partying all year and playing lazy, lose every big game at the end of the year, not playing subs because playing them we would lose games but the opposite happenned; playin the starters too much caused us to lose games. now he's already said playin the young guys next year will lose his games. Looks like he covering himself from public criticism with that comment.
11 agree | 6 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
It seems no one is willing to criticize Nelson. He has an uncanny ability to select good players in the draft but he is horrid at developing young talent, and that is no exaggeration. No player seems to play at their best under him, not even Nowitzki or Nash. Neither became MVP under him. They both played better under other coaches. That is theonly reason he never won an NBA championship. he's had some very good teams with somevery good players, but his style of coaching is so depreciating to his players that none of them can play their best ball. He personally demeans them, and seldom gives positive reinforcement. Because of it he will never win an NBA championship which is tragic because he is a good coach, and especially good in the draft. But his negative style will never work for him or anyone else. I think it is too late for him. He is too old and stubborn to change.
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WellInformed said:
Doesn't matter anyway, Ellis is an Early Bird Free Agent and can only be offered the average player salary (about $5.5 mil) in the first two years of an offer sheet. This is known as the Gilbert Arenas rule. How this writer who supposedly covers the NBA doesn't know this is beyond me. And again, you Grizzlies fans need to study up on cap holds. Your picks will make $3-$4 million.
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Examiner Reader said:
Ummm... being a Grizzles fan living in Memphis, I've been hearing that it is very UNLIKELY that Juan Carlos is back with the team. Maybe they can do a sign and trade him. Therefore, it is very LIKELY that they will offer Mr Ellis a very FRONTLOADED lucrative contract. I like him a lot, but don't know exactly how much he's worth to the Grizz, but I guess we'll see.
5 agree | 5 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
the JR trade exception expires before free agency opens this season. Also, the Grizz do have more than $10M, it's actually more like $14M. They cap will be about $58 million. The Grizz have about $44M under contract. That's $14M left for free agents. Because there is a salary cap exception for re-signing your own players, they can wait to sign Navarro (and their draft picks) until after they have signed outside free agents because they can go over the cap to sign the in-house guys.
6 agree | 4 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
Warriors may have more cap space than the Grizzlies with the 10MM trade exception from the JRich trade.
5 agree | 8 disagree
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WellInformed said:
Um, check your math. When you include the salary the Grizzlies are going to have to give the No. 5 pick plus the cap hold for Juan Carlos Navarro, I don't believe the Grizzlies will have anything close to $10 million to offer. Much closer to the $5.5 million everyone has with the mid-level exception.
5 agree | 9 disagree
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robd said:
this is an outstanding analysis. after watching Nelson's work over the last two years, good and bad, i completely understand why Cuban booted him out of Dallas. if the Warriors played with a shred of discipline they would have picked up the few games they needed to best the equally undisciplined Nuggets. and please don't say their success is predicated on the their unpredictability. you can play an aggressive, free flowing style and still take good shots in rhythm after moving the ball to the open man. baron has a dominant mid-range in to the rim game, who can step out and hit threes when he has it going, not the reverse. jackson cannot dribble and slows the flow too much, and harrington was jerked around so much i'm surprised his neck is not broken. and don't get me started on the young bigs and azuibuke...i am not delusional, the warriors underperformed because of their coach. nelson was a critical part of the turn-around, but he is well-beyond the point of diminishing returns...
8 agree | 6 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
Matt, seems a point is being overlooked here. Not so long ago (last season) we had a ref that was busted for betting on games...seems to me the league should be doing everything it can to establish and maintain credibility of the ref's...from my admitadly slanted perspective the two games with LA were called overwhelmingly in favor of LA...this aside the blatant "blown" call at the end of game two could certainly be interpreted as a last push by the ref's to give the game to LA...sickening...we just turned the game off in disgust!
12 agree | 9 disagree
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Regulator of the truth said:
Dear Matt. You mentioned that people will focus on the last 3 second instead of the previous 95 minuts and 57 seconds. But the game went into overtime. I think you meant to say 100 minutes and 57 seconds. I left scratching my head in disbelief.
8 agree | 8 disagree
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John, Lafayette said:
It must be that Nellie just doesn't know how to develop or recruit big men. By the way he treats the new guys, he doesn't even like to play them. There are players on the team who could be much more valuable, but Nellie doesn't allow them to develop. He just loves small ball.
7 agree | 8 disagree
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Examiner Reader said:
Another idiotic article
9 agree | 11 disagree
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Matt (SF) said:
Steinmetz. Explain how Nellie is, "among the biggest pieces of work roaming the sideline for any team these days." I'm baffled.
38 agree | 43 disagree
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Bass said:
Besides some improper grammar, the idea that a broken down defensive liability is going to help the squad shows your inability to be objective. Go Diplomats!
44 agree | 46 disagree
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Dave Biagini said:
I just hope that Weber can make up for messing up this franchise for years by being a piece that will help the team. This move is one of the classiest moves I have ever seen in sports. Chris Mullin is really starting to building a legacy here. These moves by Mullin are unprecidented in sports. It would be akin to having say Bush and Bin Laden enjoying dinner and a cigar. Well, that might be going a little to far but you probably get my point Now, How about bringing back Spreewell. I think he can still play and probably wants to.
39 agree | 46 disagree
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slicksteven said:
great article man, spot on
70 agree | 72 disagree
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