Steinmetz: Who’s for real in crowded West?
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Is this the year Tracy McGrady (1), Yao Ming and the Rockets advance?
(— Getty Images file photo)
Is this the year Tracy McGrady (1), Yao Ming and the Rockets advance?

SAN FRANCISCO (Map, News) - Heading into Tuesday’s games, only 4½ games separated the best team in the Western Conference from the ninth-best team.

Six of those nine teams already have made moves. Yes, the West is a brutal conference, but at least it’s wide open. Let’s assess the field.

» New Orleans: The Hornets have the best record in the conference, but it’s virtually impossible to picture them in the NBA Finals. They lack depth and sometimes have great difficulty scoring. As good as they’ve been, it is not inconceivable the Hornets could go from first to ninth in a couple of months and miss the playoffs entirely. Odds to make Finals: 15-to-1.

» Phoenix: The Suns received their fair share of criticism for acquiring Shaquille O’Neal in a trade with Miami. Critics say Shaq is a defensive liability, can’t get up and down the floor and won’t be on the court late in games because of foul shooting.

But it’s tough to write off a motivated O’Neal, and he sure seems motivated. Odds to make Finals: 3-to-1.

» Los Angeles Lakers: There is no doubt that the acquisition of Pau Gasol will help. But whether or not the Lakers wind their way through the Western Conference playoffs depends on how effective Andrew Bynum is upon his return … if he returns. Odds to make Finals: 4-to-1 (with Bynum); 10-to-1 (without Bynum).

» San Antonio: Acquiring Damon Stoudamire wasn’t exactly a big splash, but it will have benefits. The Spurs can afford to rest the injured Tony Parker until he is ready, which should make him better in the playoffs. Odds to make Finals: 2-to-1.

» Dallas: It’s interesting that while the Lakers, Suns and even the Warriors got bigger, the Mavericks chose to go in the other direction. They gave up starting center DeSagana Diop in the deal for Jason Kidd.

Kidd will make the Mavericks better at the offensive end, but they are worse defensively, particularly on the interior, where Erick Dampier now finds himself all alone. Odds to make Finals: 6-to-1.

» Utah: The Jazz are essentially the same team that defeated the Warriors in the playoffs a season ago, with the exception of Kyle Korver.

A year ago, the Jazz advanced to the Western Conference finals before losing to San Antonio.

Don’t forget the Jazz were fortunate to knock off Houston in seven games, then got some help from the Warriors, who had their chances, in Round 2. The Jazz will not make it as far this season. Odds to make Finals: 12-to-1.

» Denver: The Nuggets are said to be entertaining the notion of trading for Ron Artest. That would help the Nuggets at the defensive end. But on offense, the Nuggets would be reduced to Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson standing around while Artest monopolizes the ball. Odds to make Finals: 8-to-1 (without Artest); 25-to-1 (with Artest).

» Warriors: The Warriors are still hoping Chris Webber can help. Even if he doesn’t, the Warriors remain a pain-in-the-neck playoff opponent. Odds to make Finals: 20-to-1.

» Houston: Neither Tracy McGrady nor Yao Ming has made it out of the first round. Enough said. Odds to make Finals: 30-to-1.

Matt Steinmetz is the NBA insider for Warriors telecasts on Fox Sports Net.

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Comments from Examiner Readers

6:54 PM MST on Thu., Jul. 24, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Playoffs still in reach despite losing Davis"

Examiner Reader said:
Matt-- If the Warrior's competition won't win as many games because many teams have improved, doesn't that make it together for the Warrior's to get as many wins also?

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9:40 AM MST on Sun., Jul. 20, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: The good, bad and ugly of the NBA offseason"

Examiner Reader said:
Matt, the Warriors could be a lot better this year. They have some young players that are due to have breakout years, like Beleneli, Wright, and this new kid Randolph. Last season I though the Warriors gave too many minutes to players like Barnes, Croshere, and even Kelena Abuzuke, who played just fair. The Warriors future is these young guys. While the loss of Baron hurts, the team will be awfully potent next season offensively. With Monta, Magette, Jackson, and hopefully Beleneli they will be shooting the lights out this season. The Warriors will be a better rebounding team too. You seem to have little confidence these young players will step up. Basketball belongs to the young guys coming up, not aging veterans.

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5:15 PM MST on Mon., Jul. 7, 2008 re: "Walcoff: Warriors wise to let Baron fly south"

Examiner Reader said:
My only problem is, if he planned to go he could have allowed GS to use the trade clause giving the team a chance to use it.

2 agree | 2 disagree
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1:14 PM MST on Sat., Jul. 5, 2008 re: "Walcoff: Warriors wise to let Baron fly south"

Examiner Reader said:
Rich Walcoff: Warriors wise to let Baron fly south You hit the nail right on the head, Richie, in every way. Kudos.

2 agree | 2 disagree
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3:56 PM MST on Thu., Jul. 3, 2008 re: "Walcoff: Warriors wise to let Baron fly south"

Examiner Reader said:
i can see why you dont write for the chroicle

3 agree | 3 disagree
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11:17 AM MST on Mon., Jun. 30, 2008 re: "‘One-and-dones’ hurting the game"

noah said:
So, we're going to require all basketball playing college freshmen to sign a contract promising to stay in college for two years? It seems very unlikely that such a contract provision would be enforceable, at least absent collective bargaining.

3 agree | 2 disagree
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6:25 AM MST on Fri., Jun. 27, 2008 re: "Donte hoping to see NBA Greene"

Examiner Reader said:
"It was tough for me growing up in the streets"..... Yeh, I'd like to hear that on tape. Never, ever, ever believe what you read without a sense of humor and pity for the angle the reporters are going for. The boy is educated, polite, and has always been far from the streets... Except, apparently, for the day this interview happened.... Good lord....

4 agree | 5 disagree
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9:45 AM MST on Wed., Apr. 30, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Lucky Jazz, sorry Mavs"

Examiner Reader said:
So a week ago you state "Do you still think the Rockets are better without Yao Ming?" Yet in todays trash from you you state they go backwards when he comes back. Please tell me you don't get paid for this

10 agree | 8 disagree
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8:01 AM MST on Wed., Apr. 30, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: West's dominance won't last"

Examiner Reader said:
so are all comments that disagree with the article deleted? Doesnt matter, you lost all your credibility when you said Josh Howard was the best player on the mavs. I'm still rolling on the floor over that one.

9 agree | 7 disagree
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7:15 AM MST on Wed., Apr. 30, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: West's dominance won't last"

Examiner Reader said:
What you are forgetting is the play of Houston's rookies down the stretch. Add Yao into that mix with Scola and Landry with a year under their belt. Houston is a contender - I cannot see how you say a team will go backwards when you get the most dominant inside presence back in the line-up.

9 agree | 7 disagree
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2:43 PM MST on Thu., Apr. 24, 2008 re: "Warriors’ worriers missing the point"

Yinka Dare said:
Actually, Matt, David West played all of 111 minutes in a first-round playoff loss in '04. He is a stranger to the playoffs. Does experience count when you have only experienced losing? Why hate on the Toronto/Orlando series starring two of the league's best young bigs, instead of, say, the Hawks/Celts or Pistons/Sixers?

8 agree | 8 disagree
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11:18 AM MST on Thu., Mar. 27, 2008 re: "Warriors’ worriers missing the point"

Examiner Reader said:
"True, the Warriors have yet to lock up a playoff berth, but that is something that is outside of their control." Outside of their control? Isn't it completely in their control? Steinmetz is unbelievable.

12 agree | 9 disagree
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3:17 PM MST on Wed., Mar. 19, 2008 re: "Warriors’ worriers missing the point"

Examiner Reader said:
nellie needs to give his bench more playing time and believe in them more. he doesnt have to ride his starters for 40 minutes when the bench is very capable. Lastly, why didnt he leave the same lineup in that got them back within 6 points of the kings?? It was an off night for Jackson and Davis. A comeback was killed off and much need rest for your starters was lost.

14 agree | 15 disagree
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11:31 PM MST on Mon., Mar. 10, 2008 re: "Frantz: Mullin, Warriors leave well enough alone"

Steve in Concord said:
Perovic just recalled from D-league after avg. 18 rebounds and 35 minutes in two games. Significant?

11 agree | 11 disagree
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9:02 AM MST on Mon., Mar. 10, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Anatomy of a turnaround"

Examiner Reader said:
yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay warriors will win it all this year

12 agree | 11 disagree
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9:41 PM MST on Tue., Feb. 26, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Who’s for real in crowded West?"

Examiner Reader said:
Hi, Could you please ask Don Nelson why he isn't playing Kosta Perovic?? It's really puzzling. When Kosta came into the game in Milwaukee, he dominated Andrew Bogut. Kosta looks a lot more agile than he's been given credit for and he sure can cover a lot of ground. When the Milwaukee guards were driving towards the basket they thought twice when they saw Kosta's huge presence in the lane and instead kicked it out to Bogut who Perovic got to with 2 large ground covering steps, just enough to disturb Bogut's release point so he missed. Plus, Perovic has professional experience, so he knows what it's like to go up against older guys. Kosta also looks stronger than Brandon and Patrick. I just wish he'd reward Kosta for his impressive defense against Milwaukee. Thank you!

38 agree | 46 disagree
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1:30 PM MST on Wed., Feb. 20, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Who’s for real in crowded West?"

timgreen79 said:
I know we shouldn't sleep on the Spurs but I think they'll probably have too tough of a road if their record doesn't get better. As a 5 seed they'd play (in current standings): 1st - Utah on road, 2nd - Hornets on Road, 3rd - Lakers or Suns on road. Wow. They have experience on their side but will miss the athleticism and depth that the Suns and Lakers have. (That is if they could even get by Utah)

49 agree | 39 disagree
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1:26 PM MST on Wed., Feb. 20, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Who’s for real in crowded West?"

Bob said:
Good point that we need to wait 20-25 games to evaluate Shaq. Personally I think Phoenix is going to drop in terms of overall record (because their SOS gets tougher), but then will come on in the playoffs. Which really is the only point of the Shaq experiment.

51 agree | 46 disagree
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5:36 PM MST on Mon., Feb. 18, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Anti-All-Stars"

Matt (SF) said:
I just posted a comment a few hours ago that was removed. Am I being censored? All I said was that the inclusion of Turkoglu and Noah in this article makes no sense. Steinmetz doesn't know what he's talking about - Hedo's having a great year and Noah has been above average. So why put them on your hate list, Matt? Please censor this comment again. I'm watching.

52 agree | 46 disagree
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4:03 PM MST on Mon., Feb. 18, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Anti-All-Stars"

J Barnett said:
I know Matt can't write but he was a quality baller for F&M College. And he's quite handsome in person.

54 agree | 49 disagree
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4:00 PM MST on Mon., Feb. 18, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Anti-All-Stars"

Ben R said:
I've already come up with the best solution to problem that is Matt Steinmetz, don't read the column. Go Lakers.

55 agree | 53 disagree
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3:51 PM MST on Mon., Feb. 18, 2008 re: "Steinmetz: Anti-All-Stars"

Caleb B said:
How can you have an anti-NBA player list without including the likes of Stephan Marbury? I can't figure out the pattern in your list but Francis should be given a pass - he's injured and playing for cheap. And Hinrich? He's on team USA. Lot's of former and current knicks made your Top 15. About the only thing I agree with.

62 agree | 68 disagree
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