BALTIMORE (Map, News) - The Republican primary race in the First Congressional District is widely seen as a tight one, with U.S. Rep. Wayne Gilchrest either losing the seat he’s held for 17 years or barely squeaking by.

On the Democratic side, Queen Anne’s State’s Attorney Frank Kratovil — endorsed by the governor, comptroller, attorney general and most local elected Democrats — is expected to walk away with the nomination for which he’s raised 2 1/2 times as much as his closest foe.

In the general election, Kratovil then would face either Republican state Sen. Andy Harris — much more conservative than the incumbent — or a politically wounded Gilchrest, damaged by months of negative ads and mailers.

Harris set the tone for the campaign as Gilchrest’s first declared opponent with unrelenting attacks on the congressman’s votes on the Iraq war, immigration and spending.

State Sen. E.J. Pipkin joined the race in late November — generally seen as a spoiler to keep Harris from an upset.

The two Senate colleagues turned their guns on each other as well.

“Most people would be happy if they never received another mailer from any of the three candidates,” said Sen. Richard Colburn, a Harris backer who lost to Gilchrest in the 2004 primary.

“They’ve all gone way too negative.”

There have been lots of complaints about negative campaigning, but issue-based attack ads have been shown to work time and again.

Gilchrest’s advantages and disadvantages

Gilchrest has all the advantages of incumbency.

He’s well-known and endorsed by President Bush, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and even Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul.

He’s a likable, laid-back Marine veteran with a good record on the environment — at least for a Republican, Kratovil likes to point out.

Gilchrest’s key disadvantages are the same.

He and his record are well-known and he has worn out his welcome with many of conservative Republican voters who have never liked his support for abortion rights.

His votes with Democrats on Iraq war policy last year were the final straw for many.

Harris and Pipkin step in

That’s when Harris stepped in.

He gained the endorsement of conservative lawmakers and national organizations of economic and social conservatives.

In the view of Sen. Roy Dyson, the hard-core conservatives will vote the most heavily, and carry the day for Harris.

Dyson, D-St. Mary’s, was the incumbent congressman beaten by Gilchrest in his first race in 1990 when Southern Maryland was part of the district,

Now the district includes parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford counties, the last two represented by Harris, and they hold about 45 percent of the GOP voters.

That is Harris’ advantage but also his detriment, Pipkin believes.

The district has always included the Eastern Shore, and many observers believe those voters prefer a local resident.

That’s why Pipkin has portrayed himself as the Eastern Shore conservative with good environmental credentials — but he is an economic conservative in the Gilchrest mold, not a social conservative.

There have been no published polls in the race, and much speculation about the effect of the weather — cloudy and seasonably cold, it appears — and the narrowing of the Republican presidential race.

Harris is confident of a victory, and Colburn believes he will edge Gilchrest by 1 percent — 38 percent to 37 percent.

llazarick@baltimoreexaminer.com