It started innocently, with a curious reader and frustrated Ravens’ fan contemplating the team’s next order of business after hiring John Harbaugh as head coach.

“How many of these prospective ‘franchise quarterbacks’ ever pan out?’” asked my buddy Bill Leroy, who felt it was a worthwhile subject to be pursued. He was right...I just wish he had done the pursuing.

Gauging that the Colts’ victory over the Giants in 1958 championship game was as good a place as any to research the so-called “modern era,” we — meaning I — decided to scrutinize the college draft over the past 50 years in an effort to determine just how the decisions involving the most important position on the field turn out. Those who are pushing for the Ravens to trade up or down to get their next quarterback might want to be careful what they wish for, because the numbers are…well, “frightening” would be a good word.

Figuring the quest to be the best should start with No. 1 draft picks, that’s exactly what we did, going back to pre-Super Bowl years.

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During the last half-century, a total of 89 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round —17 with the first overall pick. We, a consensus of one really, since the guy who started all of this has no idea yet how it turned out, arbitrarily decided to create three categories — hits, misses, and those who fell somewhere in between.

For the sake of an argument, we included Joe Namath, who never appeared on an NFL draft board because he signed early with the AFL — and in deference to what remains the biggest upset in Super Bowl history — we accorded him status among those in the “hit” category, even though the rest of his career was decidedly average. As you most likely have guessed, that makes Namath part of a very distinct minority.

Of the 89 picked in the first round over the past 50 years, only 18 made the “hit” list, a mere 20 percent. Included in that group are just seven of the 17 taken first overall: Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Carson Palmer and the Mannings, Peyton and Eli, who earned his spurs last week. The middle group is just that — in the middle with 24 members, including three Super Bowl winners: Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams and Jim McMahon. More than a few in this category, many from the last five years, got a temporary pass to allow them more time to develop.

The remaining number is the scary one — there are more No. 1 quarterbacks on the “miss” list than the other two categories combined, a whopping 47 that includes six who were first overall picks: Randy Duncan, class of 59, Terry Baker, ‘63, Steve Bartkowski, ‘75, Jeff George, ‘90, Tim Couch, ‘99 and David Carr, 2002. This group also features a player who won (Trent Dilfer) and one who lost (Tony Eason) a Super Bowl.

Some of the others: Dan McGwire, brother of you know who, who was picked ahead of Brett Favre, a second rounder, in 1991 and Heath Shuler, around whom the Redskins were going to build an offense in 1994. And if we could ever forget: Art Schlicter, the 1982 first round pick of the Baltimore Colts, who backed up that selection by taking Mike Pagel in the fourth round — one year before the John Elway disaster.

On the other hand, Super Bowl quarterbacks can be found throughout the later rounds of the draft, which at one point consisted of 30 rounds, but has been limited to seven since 1993. Tom Brady is the modern day poster boy for overlooked or underrated college quarterbacks. By now everybody knows he was picked on the sixth round of the 2000 draft, but how many realize he was the third quarterback picked in that round? Marc Bulger and Spergon Wynn — it’s not a misprint — are the sixth-round trivia answers, but here’s a question only intimate family members can answer: Who was the first quarterback taken in that 2000 draft?

Giovanni Carmazzi, of Hofstra fame, was taken on the third round, with the 65th pick, by the San Francisco 49ers —10 spots before the Ravens selected Chris Redman and two rounds before the Steelers, who know all about these things, grabbed Tee Martin.

The Steelers, of course, once drafted the guy generally considered to be the prototype of the modern day “franchise quarterback,” drafting him on the ninth round of the 1955 draft, only to release him in favor of the quarterback they had taken second overall two years earlier — Ted Marchibroda. Johnny Unitas, and quite a few since then, managed to survive, unlike all too many quarterbacks who start out No. 1 and become also-rans.

So, Bill, the answer to the question is that not too many “franchise” prospects survive. It is, to say the least, an inexact science.

A Baltimore native who has covered the local and national sports scene for more than 40 years, Jim Henneman is a past president of the Baseball Writers Association of America and an active voter for baseball’s Hall Of Fame. He can be reached at sportscoper@aol.com. And by the way, Chad Pennington was the first player taken in the 2000 NFL Draft.