The influx of tens of thousands of new Marylanders following military jobs to the state will strain the organizations that help elderly, poor and disabled people, leaders of nonprofit groups say.

That could lead to demand far outstripping supply for essentials like affordable housing, health care and special education, members of the Maryland Association of Nonprofits said Wednesday.

“We already have 16,000 people waiting for services who don’t have anything yet,” said Michele Stutzer, co-chairwoman for governmental affairs at the ARC of Maryland, a statewide advocacy group for people with mental retardation and related cognitive disabilities.

“There are going to be people coming here and expecting services, and we don’t have the money to provide them.”

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The nonprofits association, representing 1,600 organizations in the state, convened this week at the BWI Holiday Inn in Linthicum to focus on the effect of Base Realignment and Closure, expected to bring 45,000 to 60,000 people to Maryland.

Association members cited statistics showing 3 percent to 10 percent of military families coming to Maryland would have children who need services for disabilities from mild learning disorders to autism or more serious developmental problems.

The more environmentally minded talked of the toll of BRAC-related development on the Chesapeake Bay.

“It’s a peculiar time in our history,” said Dick Cook, director of community outreach service at the University of Maryland’s School of Social Work. “The stresses are increasing while the resources are diminishing.”

Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown conceded the state’s “BRAC Action Plan” did not assess the effect on public health, community services or public safety. He called Wednesday’s conference the beginning of creating an “addendum” to the plan.

“We aren’t ready for the creation of 28,000 new households today or for the movement of 60,000 jobs today, but we are where we need to be, and are moving in the right direction,” said Brown, who chairs Gov. Martin O’Malley’s sub-Cabinet for BRAC preparations.

“We appreciate that the lieutenant governor was open to say what the BRAC plan did and did not include,” said Peter Berns, executive director of the nonprofits association.

“The biggest issue at this point is figuring out how this influx of households is going to affect the demand for nonprofits and whether the nonprofits are in a position to meet that demand.”

But on the upside for nonprofits, BRAC also likely will bring more people who donate money and time, said Karen Holt, BRAC coordinator for the Chesapeake Science and Security Corridor.

The average salary of new workers at Fort Meade and Aberdeen Proving Ground will be more than $87,000, and the government contractors opening near the bases tend to be “civic-minded” in supporting local nonprofits, Holt said.

Berns said the association would work on a priority list of its concerns as the state drafts the next stage of its BRAC plans.

msantoni@baltimoreexaminer.com