The Metro fare increase that took effect Sunday is likely to drag a small but significant percentage of riders away from public transit, with some taking to the region’s roads and increasing traffic there, experts told The Examiner.

But high gas prices will prevent a larger number of local residents from making the switch, they added.

John Townsend, spokesman for AAA Mid-Atlantic, said his agency estimates the higher prices will translate to about 5 percent of Metro customers backing off from transit.

That’s close to industry data provided by the Center for Urban Transportation Research. Steve Polzin, director of research, said for every 1 percent increase in fares, there tends to be a .3 percent plummet in ridership. The basic Metro fare rose more than 20 percent on Sunday, which would translate to a decrease in riders of roughly 6 percent under the center’s formula.

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Metro marked its first rate increase since 2004 and the fourth since 1993. Minimum rush-hour fares soared 30 cents to $1.35, while the maximum fares went up 60 cents to $4.50.

Polzin said whether customers begin driving instead of taking the train will depend on a range of factors from the price of gasoline to their satisfaction with the system in the past. And the total effect won’t be evident for some time.

“The quality of service will be important in coming months. People might be more tolerant of a fare hike if they see officials putting more energy into giving them more for their money,” he said. “We’ll see some people drive instead, but others will bum rides with friends, skip going to places they otherwise would. The effect is a lot more nuanced.”

Townsend said AAA expects some residents to change jobs if their company doesn’t provide complimentary or discounted SmarTrip cards.

“Those aged 24-35 are most directly affected,” he said. “They’re more likely to take Metro because of their youth, yet they’re also more price-sensitive. That’s the population to watch.”

Ben Ross, vice president of Action Committee for Transit, which represents almost 8,000 Metro riders, said he’s outraged by the price increases, especially since gas taxes haven’t gone up at the same time.

He expects the biggest outcry from the outer suburbs.

“There won’t be much of a shift for people driving into work in D.C., because there are only so many parking spaces,” Ross said.

dlevitz@dcexaminer.com