Treasurer predicts high election turnout

Arlington (Map, News) - Arlington Treasurer Frank O’Leary is predicting a robust voter turnout Nov. 6 compared to other elections without a governor’s race or federal races.

O’Leary considers a range of 38,010 to 43,670 votes most likely. In the four most recent elections without a federal or governor’s campaign, the highest turnout was 39,412 in 1995.

Turnout can be much higher for a presidential election, or even to elect a senator.

In the 2006 election, which included a U.S. Senate race, 73,499 votes were cast in Arlington.

The calculation is based on the number of absentee ballots that have been sent to the county voter registrar with 10 days remaining before the election.

O’Leary uses a mathematical model based on historical patterns for the type of election year to make his projections.

“It’s one of my statistical hobbies, as one who loves numbers,” O’Leary said. “I’ve got a real good track record.”

He has been predicting Arlington voter turnout for the last 16 years.

Usually, his prediction is no more than a few thousand off.

“I’m glad there’s interest in the election,” County Board Chairman Paul Ferguson said.

“It’s hard to predict what that means until you know who’s voting.”

A Democrat, Ferguson is running for Circuit Court clerk.

Why there would be more voters this year than usual puzzles O’Leary.

“This time around, the bosom of the electorate is throbbing with excitement, and I’ve not a clue why,” he said.

Rafael Bejar, chairman of the Arlington County Republican Committee, chalks it up to having strong candidates that are getting their messages out to voters.

“A lot of people out there are starting to question how local government is run,” Bejar said. “I’m not sure if a higher turnout or a lower one is better for us.”

mhegstad@dcexaminer.com