National issues such as the Iraq war will tilt some races in next month’s General Assembly elections in Democrats’ favor, Virginia political observers predicted, likely giving the party the four additional seats it needs to control the state Senate.

“It is not fair to blame Republicans in the General Assembly for what Republicans in D.C. have or have not done, but that is what is going on,” said Steven Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington.

“When you look at the Republican situation, there are two very serious problems,” Farnsworth said. “One is a deeply unpopular position of the national Republican Party. The other is that there is a Democratic governor in Richmond that is good at raising money and is spreading it out in districts where Republicans are facing some problems.”

Gov. Tim Kaine recently doled out $285,000 to his party’s Senate candidates in key districts, including $150,000 that was spread among candidates challenging three targeted incumbents in Northern Virginia.

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Candidates from both parties insist that local issues, such as transportation, will decide the winners Nov. 6, and point out that most people they meet want to know what they think about state matters.

“The voters understand the difference between what I do in Richmond and what goes on in Washington,” said Sen. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, R-Vienna, who is in a hotly contested race in the 34th District against Democrat Chap Petersen.

The Sorensen Institute’s Sean O’Brien, however, doubts the candidates’ predictions will come true.

“Ideally, you would want local issues to determine the outcome, but the bad feelings most voters have about the president and the war in Iraq are too strong,” he said.

One bright spot for Republicans could be the illegal immigration issue, which is extremely important to voters in some districts and a major discussion topic throughout the state.

“The Republicans have been at a great disadvantage through this election cycle, but the one thing Republicans have going for them now is illegal immigration,” Farnsworth said. “The Republicans really, really need to change the subject. If people are thinking about Washington, Republicans lose.”

jrogalsky@dcexaminer.com